A surge in US military air activity across Europe and the Middle East is underway alongside rising tensions with Iran, with open-source tracking showing increased tanker, transport, and support aircraft movements over recent days.

Data compiled by the Military Air Tracking Alliance and shared by multiple open-source analysts indicates a sustained flow of US Air Force aerial refuelling aircraft transiting from the continental United States toward Europe and onward into the Middle East.

As of 31 January, analysts reported a tanker fleet of around 20 aircraft positioned at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, alongside continued movements involving KC-135R Stratotankers and KC-46A Pegasus aircraft operating between the US, Europe and forward locations.

One of our team, Jon, aka ‘DefenceGeek’ in the OSINT community, noted that several KC-46A aircraft operating under the “GOLD” callsign series were positioned and ready for onward movement, with additional assets expected to arrive from the United States.

Posting an update early on Saturday, DefenceGeek said activity had been relatively limited overnight, with aircraft that had deployed into the Middle East late on Friday returning to Europe during the morning hours, while attention remained focused on reports concerning potential fighter deployments via Lajes in the Azores and electronic warfare aircraft in southern Europe. The movements come as US Central Command confirmed that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is conducting a two-day live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international shipping route through which around 100 merchant vessels transit daily.

In a statement, CENTCOM urged the IRGC to conduct the exercise “in a manner that is safe, professional and avoids unnecessary risk to freedom of navigation for international maritime traffic”, warning that unsafe behaviour could increase the risk of escalation or collision. CENTCOM added that it would not tolerate “unsafe IRGC actions including overflight of US military vessels engaged in flight operations, low-altitude or armed overflight of US military assets when intentions are unclear, high-speed boat approaches on a collision course, or weapons trained at US forces.”

While many of the aircraft observed are routinely associated with regional deterrence missions, the scale and timing of the movements have prompted wider analysis among defence observers.

Writing earlier this week, analysts noted the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group into the wider Middle East region, joining air and missile defence systems already deployed, including Patriot and THAAD batteries, as well as combat aircraft such as F-15E Strike Eagles. Additional reporting has pointed to the presence of P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, MQ-9 remotely piloted systems, transport aircraft and aerial refuelling assets supporting the broader posture.

Earlier this month, the United States also established the Middle East Air Defence Combined Defence Operations Cell at Al Udeid, intended to strengthen regional air and missile defence integration among US and partner forces.

Jon said the overall posture “suggests that the US intends to carry out an initial strike to neutralise key targets like air defences and airbases, possibly using a mix of B-2s, F-35Cs and EA-18Gs, followed by several days or even a couple of weeks of further strikes using F-15Es and other assets.”

He added that tanker and cargo aircraft would be essential to sustaining such operations, and that F-15E aircraft could also be tasked with regional air defence roles, including countering cruise missile and drone threats.

George Allison
George Allison
George Allison is the founder and editor of the UK Defence Journal. He holds a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and specialises in naval and cyber security topics. George has appeared on national radio and television to provide commentary on defence and security issues. Twitter: @geoallison
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10 COMMENTS

    • American culture is deeply weird, an ostensibly Christian country completely addicted to violence and its enjoyment.

      MAGA is nothing unusual from a historical perspective: while it marks a return to the endemic and institutionalised racism of the mid-20th Century, it still has that core underlying addiction to violence.

      To be fair, they’re not quite as weird as the Russians, who are completely bat-s**t crazy – being a bizarre combination of aggression, paranoia and fragility.

      • If you look at America from an HDI perspective it looks very much like a developing country as opposed to a Northern European Developed country. It’s suffers very low in things like democracy, safety, take home income and life expectancy.

        It never use to be like this. Before the 80’s it looked just like or exceeded most Northern European countries. It does have a very high GDP per capita however this figure is inaccurate as it’s massively inflated by business investment figures that don’t translate into prosperity for the average person and Offcourse massive borrowing by both corporates and the US government.

        In many ways the US economically increasingly resembles a Petro state.

        The real outlier for the USA vs Northern European states has been religion. However religion is in full scale retreat in the US and its rapidly catching up with other developed countries.

        However the US remains and outlier with other industrial countries much like Japan does. It’s very different make up from everyone else.

  3. Is something afoot? Slowly but surely a dark shadow is descending across our World and it’s not an international coordinated effort as the US intends to use its huge military machine to draw lines in the sand. The rest of the Western nations can only guess what Trump will do next and cower to his doctrine, whether they like it or not. These actions will determine the boundaries for a new era in World history and are designed to restrict US enemies from gaining strategic advantages. God only knows what 2026 will hold for our country that has allowed our defences to rot on the vine.

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