The government has reaffirmed its commitment to procuring 138 F-35 Lightning aircraft across the life of the programme, but a series of parliamentary answers this week raises as many questions as they answer about what that figure actually means in practice, given the tortured history of the commitment and the continued absence of any concrete plan to reach it.
Asked on 21 April whether he remains committed to a total order of 138 aircraft, Minister of State Luke Pollard confirmed the MoD’s position had not changed, though a separate question the previous day, which asked whether the government plans to use future tranches to replace jets currently in service, received a notably vaguer response, with Pollard saying only that “decisions will be taken across the life of the programme” and pointing to the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan as the vehicle through which those commitments would eventually be taken forward.
That phrasing is worth paying attention to, because “across the life of the programme” leaves open the possibility that 138 refers to cumulative purchases spread over several decades rather than a simultaneous operational fleet of anything like that size, which would mean earlier low-rate production aircraft being quietly retired and replaced by newer lots while the headline number is kept intact as a kind of political floor that successive ministers can stand on without actually committing to a timetable or a budget.
A question from Baroness Goldie in March drew a similarly cautious answer from Lord Coaker, who confirmed 48 F-35B aircraft have been ordered and delivered while saying future orders and delivery schedules remain subject to the Defence Investment Plan, a document that was originally supposed to be published last autumn and for which no date has yet been announced. The UK has committed to purchasing at least 74 aircraft with options for further buys beyond that baseline, meaning the gap between what is contracted and what 138 would require remains substantial, and the Defence Investment Plan is where any decision about the path from 74 to 138 will actually have to be made, if it is made at all.
The broader history is relevant here, because the previous government formally moved away from the 138 figure in 2021, stating instead that the fleet would grow beyond the 48 already ordered without specifying a total, before more recent statements appeared to recommit to the number without providing any of the contractual substance that would make it meaningful, and the 2025 Strategic Defence Review further complicated things by introducing F-35A variants and reducing the second batch F-35B order from 27 to 15 while adding 12 F-35As, meaning the eventual fleet will no longer be the single-variant force the original commitment envisaged.
The NAO has noted there is no approved timetable for purchasing beyond the aircraft already on contract, and given that the F-35B remains among the most expensive tactical combat aircraft in production, the affordability questions around actually reaching 138 have not gone away.
Place a fictitious order for 138 in peacetime, drag your feet for decades, backtrack and faff about during a period of warlike actions, degrade aircraft numbers to their lowest levels ever and bury your heads In the sand until It’s safe to retire on a nice fat pension.
What about the source code?
There may be a case of drip-feeding the F35 fleet as the world of aviation is rapidly changing in preference for drones. If unmanned craft are to eventually replace manned operations, there may be a case for taking a more measured approach to the procurement of F-35s. One other factor: should the MOD be considering increasing the Tempest fleet, in which case procuring fewer F-35s might be one way to achieve that?
But we have no “Un-manned craft” (drones) and no Idea at all of how many Tempest might actually be ordered either.
I know that, but in 5-10 years we may have such crafts in frontline service, and is it wise to buy a manned plane in such large numbers if only to be obsolete in a decade or so? I know there is some talk of F-35s being converted into drones, but this might be a myth. Somehow the UK and partners have to buy enough Tempests to make the programme viable, and the eventual fleet might be larger than initially planned based on the premise of spreading the development/manufacturing costs across as many partners as is feasible. I understand Tempest has been designed to be uncrewed from the outset as an operational option.
Well, don’t hold your breath mate, In 5-10 years, Typhoon numbers will have fallen even further and still no DIP announcement will have been made If truth be known.
If we have learned anything from Israel actions in Iran it is that the F35 is the most capable war winning weapon system on the planet and in a major war against a peer opponent air power is more important than anything the army can do.
The number one priority of UK defence after nuclear weapons should be a massively increased F35 force. We should buy all 138 we committed to over the next five years and operate three F35B and three F35A squadrons along side an increased E7 fleet. This is the most important conventional capability we can bring to NATO.
Really?
Whilst Israel did use its small number of F35As against Iran, particularly to neutralise air defences, most missions were carried out by its much larger fleet of F16s and F15s.
The 138 F35B initially announced for the UK was simply a desire to replace joint force Harriers on a one for one basis. It was never intended to replace Tornados which have been deleted without direct replacement.
The trouble is that on most measures the F35 has failed to deliver what it was claimed to do. It is not a more affordable replacement for legacy aircraft, its large order numbers across three variants have not led to cost savings, it is far more expensive to maintain and operate than other combat aircraft and LM continue to miss every deadline for software upgrade that would allow a wider range of weapons to be carried.
The UK chose the F35B mainly to sustain fixed wing carrier operations. Once it was recognised that returning to CATOBAR operations ( which ended in 1978) would be unaffordable, the F35B was the only option. Without the carrier commitment, the UK has no real need for F35s of any type.
What UK lacks is adequate numbers of combat aircraft, air launched anti ship capability and any serious GBAD.
The last thing we should be spending scarce funds on is an aircraft still unable to deploy the weapons that might make it useful.
Not sure about the “Never Intended to replace Tornado” comment mate ?
617 Sqn Is a questionable replacement.
At no point was the F35 ever slated to be cheaper to maintain than a legacy aircraft. It’s a 5th generation stealth fighter, how could it ever be cheaper to maintain.
It’s was slated to be on a price level similar to a fourth generation plane which it is.
The F35A is the cheapest production weather fighter you can buy today and by far the most capable. This is why it’s won every competition it ever entered.
Jim, the American shill working overtime lately
That’s mental, last week the best had me down as anti American.
I’m confused, it’s almost like I formed my own opinions based on my understanding of the facts rather than proscribing to the group think of a particular tribe 🤔
48 too many. Bring back the Harrier.
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Harriers to expensive and crap, bring back sword fish.
Labour has turned obfuscation on defence into an art form. Never were so many words spoken with such little effect.
Who is fooling who here! The “across the life of the programme”, never meant the uk would eventually operate 135 frames more that the earliest tranche of aircraft would be replaced. That is never going to happen we all know it. So why do ministers mislead.
The number being banded around is 72B versions being talked about the A version dropped as the numbers is not viable.
Luke Pollards answers to defence questions gives you a fair idea how badly the DIP has become. I would be surprised if the government scraps it and starts again.
I had read that the first 14 early lot UK F-35B were probably too difficult & expensive to upgrade.
No just the first three, the rest are fine.
138 operated at once is fantasy land, we’d need extra billions for another couple of stations refurbed for them for starters.
I look at it in differing ways.
I absolutely agree with Jim on the primacy of airpower and the potency of F35.
Yet listening to many here, we are supposed to be drawing away from US dependency, not increasing it.
I’d settle on the extra 27, and no more, all B if I ever had my way, for reasons long discussed.
More Typhoon, more E7, more Atlas, more P8, more Drones like Protector and possibly other types, Chinook CSP Tranche 2, Hawk replacement, RAF Regiment GBAD, other RAF ground enablers, extra usable RAF Stations with HAS and the supports to use for effective dispersal operations that are currently not possible without those supports.
That means a few thousand extra RAF personnel, maybe a thousand?
All of these, I would put ahead of a mass F35 buy.
The whole things fantasy anyway, we had Healey days ago grandstanding about the “additional” 200 million on P8 after the Russian channel antics, which was then revealed to be the next installment of an already existing support contract!
So, nothing, wrapped up in thin air.
GCAP at 12 billion over the next decade says hello as well, just where is the money for 138 F35, or my own preferred list of purchases?
Fantasy land I’m afraid, we won’t see many more F35, even the next 27 are spread out into the 2030s!
All spin, no substance, nothing changes with HMG.
I agree with much of the sentiment of your summary but what about Typhoon? the Mk 4 version is in production and given the advances of missile and weapon technology it is becoming a much more capable aircraft than just an Air Defence weapon. I wonder why there isn’t a stronger lobby for more UK(European) built Typhoon Mk4’s.
I fear this goverment will decide little in the next year or so and as far as the RAF is concerned all bets will be put on GCAP which will almost certainly cost more and take longer to become fully operational – I can see anothe TSR2 on the horizon if the US manage to pull Japan out of the GCAP consortim with the F47 coupled with a deal to manufacture in Japan as per their F15’s as their need is probably more near term than UK and Italys.
I listed Typhoon! I’d be delighted with 24 more.
Nothing will happen with this government, they’re too busy trying to save themselves from their own incompetence to worry about small things like the collapse of numbers in the military.
We never get to operate full numbers of any airframe though DM. The Initial (firmed up order) plan was for 138, this was later morphed Into “up to” and “over the full life span” as opposed to actual cuts In numbers like we saw with Typhoon and Tornado (I’m sure you can post those numbers). This Is just a way of wording cut’s without actually saying It.
Either way you look at it, we are a hell of a long way Into this program yet even further behind on numbers. All the time losing Typhoons too.
Cuts cuts and nothing but Cuts.
Course we don’t.
250 Eurofighter.
138 F35.
12 T45
22 Nimrod MRA2.
All the same.
This government are all words and I’ll continue to highlight the hypocrisy, half truths, withdrawals, U turns, cuts, spin, lies even, as long as it continues, no doubt to the extreme annoyance of some Labour luvies here.
👋 👋 👋 I care not, the more that expose them the better. When it’s a positive or they make an advancement, I’m delighted to agree and applaud.
Not many of those are there.
A statement like most others by Government saying not a lot, no time lines no real fixed numbers just what might like to have or then again might not. That is all you ever get from the MOD and uselrss Defence Sec, empty statements deciding nothing.
This Government is really trying to have it all ways and I honestly think they don’t know how to make a decision as all Defence spending seems to be variable according to the whims of the Government on the day. They are caught knowing increases are needed now but new spend will be required in the future so which option will they go for because that won’t go for both. The %GDP arguement is just just a useful cap on defence spending – they don’t apply it as a tool for management of the budgets in any other sector of the Government spend. As for the F35, now the ‘dam has been broken’ and the A model is now accepted for the RAF, do they go for more of the cheaper A models and a smaller number of B models just to keep the Carrier fleet relevant. Of course that might change if they really go radical and mothball one or sell off one or both carriers given the tilt of UK Defence to the Europe-Atlantic and an increasing realisation that the UK is incapable of mounting and sustaining any sort of Carrier Strike Group action East of Suez on its own and which the USN is likely to be reluctant to support given its own problems.
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I think 96 is probably the optimal as this gives us 2 operational carrier air wings of 32 plus 24 to cover long term maintenance, and 8 for testing etc.
each carrier wing would be 24 active with 8 in some form of short term maintenance but could surge to 32 if required – F35 should really be targeted as an RN solution and sized accordingly.
I would then divert all remaining funding to Tempest as this is the future and go large on this and its loyal wing solution, which can also be used by F35s
Further reductions down to as few as 56 (16+16+16+8) could be achieved if loyal wings took up the slack and this leaves us with a wafer thin fleet set up for future cuts (which may be worth doing – who knows)
Tempest is the future – its sovereign and looks the real deal – aligned with loyal wings and drones its where we should investing
Should also be pointed out that for the cost of 1 F35 we can buy 100 or so TLAMs or 10 MLRS systems with ammo – which has more utility?
Not sure which is overhyped more, the aircraft capability or the numbers to be operated by the UK. IMHO F35 remains a great American Boondoggle of very questionable value, costs being such the UK will never be able to operate a useful fleet, whilst at the same time denying the ability to fit better European weapons.
Give the RN control of all current F35B aircraft and cancel all future F35B orders.
Let the RAF purchase the F35A aircraft. These are a cheaper and more useful variant with the ability to carry nuclear and conventional weapons systems.
Order a couple of squadrons of Typhoons to assist with the defence of the UK and overseas territories.
Push on with Tempest and let see some prototype hardware in the sky.