Ukraine regained more territory last month than it lost to Russian advances, a senior NATO military official has said, in one of the clearest signs yet that momentum on the battlefield has shifted in Kyiv’s favour.
Speaking on NATO’s support to Ukraine, the official said that despite the war having now lasted longer than the First World War, Russia has “not achieved a single strategic objective”, and that “in fact the last month Ukraine regained more territory than it ceded”.
The official was careful to qualify the scale of Russian advances where they do occur, noting that they are typically measured “in meters per day, not kilometers”, and that they come at what the official called an extraordinary cost in Russian casualties and equipment, even as Moscow retains the ability to generate tactical pressure, mass fires and absorb losses at a level the official said most Western nations would find militarily and politically unsustainable.
Unable to generate momentum at the front line, the official said, Russia has increasingly turned to terror-focused strikes against the rear, hitting civilian infrastructure including housing, shopping centres, hospitals and cultural heritage sites, a shift the official framed as evidence that Moscow has run out of better options on the ground.
The broader contest has become one of endurance, adaptation and industrial capacity, and on that measure the official said momentum currently lies with Ukraine, whose endurance and adaptability remain “extraordinary”, though consolidating and expanding on recent gains will depend on the timeliness and coordination of allied support.
The assessment sits beside a more cautious picture given by NATO earlier the same week, describing Russian advances over the past year as having slowed markedly, with only marginal Russian gains in places such as Zaporizhzhia and a particular drop in the rate of advance since January, while still warning that positional warfare, with Russia attempting to consolidate ground it already holds, remains the most likely shape of the war over the next six months.
Losing or gaining Metres is neither here nor there.
Need to continue support to Ukraine above and beyond what we are currently doing until Russia gives up and goes home.
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In theory. But in practice, Russia loosing net terrain, even by small amounts does remove the “We will win this war eventually Ukraine is just dragging it out” narrative the Kremlin loves, and it seems to make Dementia Donny and Ottoman Vance hold off.
“Ukraine regained more territory last month than it lost to Russian advances, a senior NATO military official has said, in one of the clearest signs yet that momentum on the battlefield has shifted in Kyiv’s favour.”
Next month, its possible that Ukraine could lose more ground than it gained. So, it’s a little disingenuous to conclude that momentum has shifted to Ukraine based on one data pointing.
What have been Ukraine’s gains/losses in the last 3, 6, and 9 months? Show a trend and let the data set you free.
lol. There are lies, d*mn lies and statistics.
I think there has been a little bit of a trend in the past months and years where Russia has thrown troops forward, at great cost for a few metres.
My understanding is that, correct me if I’m wrong, Ukraine was beginning to inflict heavy damage to the Russian supply lines and so therefore you would expect that to feed through to an impact on their ability to hold (and gain) ground. Even though previously Russian gains were modest this could well be the beginning of the end, in Ukraine, for Russia whilst they are unable to do the basics.
Russia has been gaining small amounts of ground over the last 2-3 years, culminating in 46,000sq miles of Ukraine occupied at the start of the year. For comparison, in March 22 Russia controlled 58,000sq miles of Ukraine.
Russia is still attacking, but they are really only capable of gaining ground in one direction, currently Konstantinivka. Meanwhile Ukraine is nibbling away most everywhere else, which means no dramatic advances but Ukraine is advancing just enough all over the place to mean that in the last 6 months Russia has lost about 1,000sq mi of territory.
Well a good thing we have the internet to check:
Russia has had a net gain of territory each month between November 2023 and Jan 2026. Then Feb-June 2026 each month Ukraine has had a net gain.