Defence analysts have argued that they believe that China will try to invade Taiwan before 2025.

The claims were made in the latest episode of the popular defence podcast which discussed  hypersonic missiles, China’s face off with Taiwan and HMS Queen Elizabeth’s Carrier Strike Group deployment.

The podcast was hosted by well respected ‘Open Source Intelligence’ analysts @DefenceGeek, @Osinttechnical, @KyleJGlen, @air_intel and features a guest appearance from @IsraelRadar_com.

A panellist said “I’m personally of the belief that there will be some sort of confrontation with China before 2025”, other panellists responded with their views. It’s worth a listen.

The episode can be found on Spotify:

Or TuneIn:

Or YouTube:

You can also visit our dedicated ‘The OSINT Bunker’ page here.

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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147 COMMENTS

  1. Speculation BUT if the Chinese do gamble you can bet the Taiwanese would cause them mass casualties. Put in USN Carrier Battle Groups, submarines and airpower and you end up with absolute carnage even with only conventional weapons. Then add in the possible escalation caused by Japanese and S Korean involvement and then the possible escalation into the nuclear field – no the Chinese won’t gamble – far too risky.

    The Chinese will follow a strategy of will we won’t we to pile on the pressure but putting in a major amphibious operation in the face of the might of the USN is not in their best interest.

    • While I don’t think it’s going to happen before 2025, I have the feeling that China will make a military move against Taiwan before the west is anticipating. From a military perspective, Its better for China to go for it sooner rather than later since they US is still trying to figure out the right posture to counter a move by them.

    • Never under estimate your enemies but don’t over estimate your allies.
      I would expect the Tainwanese to capitulate in face of a Chinese invasion almost as quickly as the Afgan Army did to the Taliban

      • Why capitulate when it’s obvious from the Uighurs, HK etc that every Taiwanese who’s ever criticised the PRC etc will be sent to prison camps or worse & their way of life will be chillingly changed forever? Just so the CCP can claim a properganda coup for its vanity. Whose liberites & freedoms will be next? Have we learnt nothing from appeasing brutal dictators? George Orwells 1984 is alive & well in the PRC.

        • I’m sure there were plenty of Afgans that were fearful of the same fate from the Taliban, it didn’t make them fight any harder.

        • Also there are many allies in the region who would oppose PLA attacks. Japan has islands right next door to Taiwan who’d be next after the PRC took Taiwan, if they could. So I don’t see Taiwan resisting an invasion alone. Taiwan is too vital to world IT to be allowed to fall into PRC hands. The neighbours have been actively building their forces in a real fast arms race to counter the PRC for the last decade or more.

      • I’m not so sure. The Taiwanese military, although much smaller than China’s are a professional, well trained and equipped force. They aren’t tribesmen more focused on past tribal conflicts and wholly dependent on Western support than they are in defending their country. Even allowing for no allied intervention (unlikely I think), they will fight hard and the Chinese will find their invasion attempt very bloody and costly. No plan survives first contact with the enemy. Thousands of bodybags of dead soldiers returning to China will seriously undermine public morale and the CCP grip on power. That’s before we even consider the wider economic, military and diplomatic costs to China.

        • According to the Wiki, because of universal conscription, the Taiwanese army technically includes 1.6 million reservists. Home advantage is huge if they can use it. The reserve army is deemed underprepared and there’s a plan to bolster it. Also starting to come off the pipeline in a couple of years are locally built submarines, which could be devastating to an army trying to cross the Taiwan Straits. They would need to be hunted and cleared first. Recall the effect of the presence a single British submarine at the time of the Falklands conflict. It’s not just the bodybags coming home they have to worry about, it’s them never coming home, coupled with arguments about whether they should be recovered from the bed of shallow Straits.

          If China waits until 2025, it might find it very much harder. With even the possibility of US air superiority, no wonder China is developing/testing “carrier killing” missiles. China’s traditional mentality has been to wait it out for a few decades or even centuries, but it doesn’t look like Xi follows that mindset. It’s possible he will jump sooner rather than not at all.

        • Take onboard your points but I cannot reconcile how a small island off the coast off China can hold off the entire Chinese Army. They don’t even have to airstrike to cripple Command and Control, Radar and SAM. They have the missles to accomplish this before they even start flying aircraft over the Island prior to making the landing itself.
          China holds all the cards, they can pick the place and time war begins, they can neutralise air defence and establish air superiority, and from there it’s just a matter of how long before Tiawan is overrun.
          If war happened tomorrow, how long do you think it would take Biden, Johnson, Macron etc to co-ordinate a millitary response? My bet is they would still be talking about what they are planning to do, while China were busy mopping up the last vestiges of Taiwan resistance.
          I hope I’m wrong but think alot of the West is still living off past glory. The world has changed, the West hasn’t.

          • Sure, on a purely numerical and geographical basis, there is virtually no doubt that China would/should eventually prevail in an invasion. My point though is that I don’t think it would be a walkover, the Taiwanese military are professional and motivated and will fight hard. Even the topography of Taiwan is difficult for an invasion force: mountains and forests and we know just how difficult it is to fight and manoeuvre in that terrain against a determined enemy. The loss of one or two Chinese carriers or landing ships could prove disastrous for the Beijing government. I take your point regarding dithering by Western leaders, but if it seems as if China is going ‘scorched earth ‘ in an invasion (remember Taiwan supplies a huge amount of Western consumable goods), then there will be considerable geo – political repercussions for them .

          • western technology coupled with proffessional servicemen/women will trump even bigger foes with its efficience

          • The Taiwan Straits is much wider than the English Channel which held off the Germans in WW2 from invading Britain.
            Germany was much more powerful in 1940 with a larger army and air force, than Britain.

          • Taiwan wouldn’t be fighting the entire Chinese military however ch8na would be fighting the whole Taiwan military China would have to keep troops based all over its land it has border disputes with every neighbour it can only deploy a part of its military

    • Seems that there are 2 basic choices: confront China now while an element of superiority remains (and all the risks which this entails) or.. prepare for future rivalry and potentially also conflict increasingly on their terms. Unpalatable options and to my mind the latter only makes sense if robust alliances (notably including India) can emerge to make the risk of a PRC sally too large. Welcome to the new Cold War.

      • China is likely close to its zenith in power much like Germany in the 1900’s and Russia in the 60’s. Just need to contain them long enough until gravity and demographics catch up with them. By the end of the century there population will be halfed and the west will be larger than today. The CCP won’t last forever.

        • What makes u say that China in the past few years has taken the 1 child limit so I would assume in 10/20 years they will have major growth currently the whole military is made up of “little princes” (Chinese first and only born sons who get treated like little princes) you start dropping them in any large numbers and the general public won’t accept it in China it’s all about your name if you kill off the name u kill of the family line, also everything depends on the USA without the USA Taiwan would crumble but to take Taiwan with the USA in the game would mean taking out bases in Japan Korea Guam etc so widening the war massively

    • Never assume enemy will make decisions that are logical to you. That’s what’s bitten the west in the past!
      They don’t have same concern for loosing people, no press freedom.

    • I think its entirely possible that an invasion could take place with hardly a shot being fired. The repercussions might be a different matter.

  2. Hope they’re wrong! Considering Biden’s change of tack from decades long ambiguity to confirmation the US woukd get involved.

    • Do Biden’s comments actually count as a ‘change of tack’?

      Given the seemingly absent-minded nature of his comments (and his demeanour in general) I’m not sure if it’s an accidental statement of US defense policy, or the sort of thing my old man used to randomly blurt out when he was in his ‘decline’.

      • I thought president Bidans main concerns prior to his statement on defending Taiwan against Chinese aggressions, was to withdrawal the troops from Vietnam, and too back the Sharh of Iran if he needed assistance all this after his afternoon nap 😴

    • Joe Biden’s advisors where quick to back track on his statements. The man can’t even remember the names of half his advisors nevers which makes you wonder who is actually running the country.

    • Hi D .The old man was clear in his statement last week that America will defend Taiwan if thy are attacked by China Vigilance remains the watchword!

    • Hopefully, but after abandoning Afghanistan to Taliban repression & leaving our Kurdish allies to the Turks, we’ve given a lot of milage to those who would think the west is weak & lacks guts to back up our threats.

  3. They may well do but the key question what will the world do? The UK is bankrupt and so is the US so do we have the financial resource for sustained warfare in the South China sea? It would have to be a major multinational force and this obviously food and manufactured good supplies. The UK has stupidly managed to make sure our food supplies are most from outside the UK and our manufactured goods as well. If we went to war we would win but at what cost? We did this in WW1 when we were the only global superpower and that smashed us financially and the human cost was immense because of a belligerant and arrogant Germany. WW2 was the coup de grace for Britain as a major superpower again caused by an arrogant and belligerant Germany. WW3 we pretty much bring us back to the stone age all because of an arrogant and belligerant China. I hope they are wrong as the financial and collateral damage would be on a scale the UK has never seen before. Let’s hope the Chinese are not so stupid either…

    • The United States is the largest economy in the world and thus has vast, dreamy financial resources. Though far too much is spent on interest on the federal debt, the U.S. is far from bankrupt and saying that is absurd. It is not a person that has a 30 year work life to pay off a loan.

      We are simply financially mismanaged by a myopic congress. When the going gets tough things might change.

    • The uk and the USA are far from bankrupt the USA is the reserve currency in the world and sterling is the 4th largest currency in the world

  4. Well, they wont do it when Trump is president again that is for sure.
    Joe Biden is the most incompetent, useless, far left president in living memory. Yes he may be the most legitimate and popular president (lets go Brandon) in US history, but China are not worried about him. He cant even handle a border crisis he and her created let alone a power like China.
    America has gone from
    ‘America first’, to ‘America only’.
    Christ, only have to wait and see if the money printing spree he and she wants is passed and China can just sit back and watch America financially collapse and walk into Taiwan.

    America is no longer an ally to anyone, a truly dark cloud covers the entire nation for the next 3 years.
    God help us all

        • Big difference between words and action. Whether the US wants to accept the casualties involved in a direct confrontation with China is highly questionable. I guess they could move assets there to prevent Chinese actions ahead of time, but they haven’t so far and I suspect it would require a major deployment.

          • That maybe true, but I’d like to think their word is their bond. Then again look at Poland 1939, UK didn’t lift a finger .

          • We didn’t do much at the time & then let Stalin steal half of Poland post-war. But we did declare war against Germany & it ultimately led to the downfall of Nazi Germany. Maybe the PRC should take note. The USA & regional allies are very present in forces available to counter any PLA attack. If Taiwan is taken, who will be next?

          • Your grasp of history is a little off, Klonkie.The UK didn’t lift a finger, you say??? The Nazi invasion of Poland was the very reason that the UK was the first Western country to declare war on Germany, thus starting WW2.

          • China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, if the US stationed troops there the communist government would consider it an outside invasion and use it as an excuse to launch an immediate invasion of their own.
            Taiwan has plenty of boots on the ground of their own, if they where given equivalent support to Israel to build Iron dome and the ability to launch thousands of anti ship missiles into the Taiwan straight the would be a pretty hard nut to crack.

          • BB85 At this present moment ,American green berets are training Taiwanese troops ,whether they’ve been training these troops for quite sometime or since Biden became President who knows ,but I don’t believe that Americas involvement with the Taiwanese military is just for a Photoshoot

          • A bit like saying, because Britain is only 22 miles across the water from France, It is part of France. At least Taiwan is 96 miles away from China! I have not heard USA saying Cuba is party of USA as it is only 90 miles away!

          • agree, is US ready to accept casualties, likewise does China want to loose its massive trade surplus and investments with US. the insecure geopolitics probably suits the China leadership.

        • I think Biden’s statement was strategically very sound. By stating the US will defend Taiwan you can bet the Chinese are now trying to calculate a difficult set of sums.
          1) what is Taiwans maximum defence capability and how quickly and effectively can Taiwan mobilise. Seeing as they test mobilisation and anti invasion drills regilarly. Id say pretty quick
          2) what force can China bring to bear against Taiwan and would a mobilisation in preperation for military conflict be noticed. Seeing as China practiced embarking 10 brigades onto amphibious warfare ships recently. Id think China has the means to land a sizeable force in Taiwan, could such a force establish and secure a bridgeheaf. Debateable. Attritional casualties will be massive on both sides.
          3) Can China effectively through area denial weapons prevent as USN and allies counter attack in a 7-14 day time period.
          4) if not able to prevent a counter attack when would China effectively be able to gain a localised advantage over US navy and allies.
          Answer to point 4 would seem to be 2030s.
          What is not mentioned in analysis is a 5th point.
          5) currently US navy and allies have a gigantic advantage is submarine warfare and Anti submarine warfare over the PLAN. Chinas most modern submarines are noisy, relatively easily detected and would be canon fodder to US navy Virginia, Sea Wolf and even late model refurbished Los Angeles class attack submarines, as would China’s surface fleet, which isnt exactly known to be a world leader in anti submarine warfare.
          I think this point above all others should worry China more than any other. They could potential wage war effectively vs Taiwan and likely capture the island with huge loss of life. But the risk of strangling off Chinese imports and exports via unrestricted submarine warfare is a very realistic outcome China would have to accept.
          Im not sure China will risk it. Especially on the back of worldwide sentiment towards them for internal repression of minority groups and the cause of the covid pandemic.

          • Good points you raise, in particular point 5 . I’d be surprised if China’s thinks the gain outweighs the loss. Just doesn’t make sense.

          • My guess is China could stop US intervention through the threat of land based missiles. If the US lost an aircraft carrier or two early on, with the corresponding loss of life, the support for the war would rapidly change in the US. Especially as we are coming off the back of the failures in Iraq/afgan.

            As you state the trick is landing enough troops in surprise, so the US doesn’t have time to deploy subs, after that most of the supplies could be air lifted in avoiding concerns of tne subs. Plus the distance isn’t huge and so China could probably establish a safe channel using surface /air sub hunters, which would at least make the ally subs just much harder.

            The US and the rest of the world know their ecomonies rely massively on cheap Chinese manufacturing, so my guess once the war is lost, the west would probably put token sanctions on China and the status quo would then mainly return rapidly. The idea of a blockade on their trade, would damage the allies more than China, so would be a no go.

            It just comes down to does China really have a desire to take the damage to its international reputation, and the corresponding loss to trade, which would probably not be huge but it wouldn’t be zero.

            The world’s economies are completely different than they were during the 30s, and most western countries rely so heavily on China for manufacturing. It’s not like Germany was, which was an important trade partner for the British empire but not critical. At the time the US economy relied heavily on Europe (the superpowers of the time) and hence the support and eventual joining the war.

          • I would imagine the US would target and destroy any land based missiles that would threaten its carriers. Indeed I think the Chinese would know and expect that. Meantime China’s precious carriers and general surface fleet would also be targeted and destroyed by US/allied subs. At the end of the day, what will China gain?

          • China gain is they get back what they think is theirs and eliminate the national disgrace around the loss, plus remove a major US ally from their backyard.

            On what basis are we defining the Chinese subs as loud?, as we know electric subs have been very effective operating close to shore against carriers etc, which would be the likely battlefield. I doubt it would be all one way thing with the US /allies subs, I suspect the losses would rapidly hit both sides, especially as it will be entirely in range of airborn sub hunters from the mainland.

            I don’t think China would risk it, but I’m not sure they would fail if they decided to or that the US would join at all. My guess it would be a other Crimea, lots of words but no actions.

          • Hi Steve. Just what fellow submariners have gone on record to state. Chinese subs are easy to detect and noisy. The PLAN submarine force is 1970-1980s technology currently, although recent espionage and capture of Barracuda class Submarine designs from France will likely lead to a leapfrog in design and capability. Expect to see a Chinese Baracuda in the near future.
            Warships IFR did a report about QE CSG type 23s and Merlins easily detecting and tracking 3 Chinese diesel electric class subs. You can bet Artful had a locked on targetting solution on all 3. They have numbers but if they venture outside of total air superiority and range of screening shorebased aircraft into contested waters they are likely mincemeat for USN Virginia and Sea Wolf class subs. Let alone Astute or Trafalgar class.

          • Thats the crux of the problem now, ‘The West Rely on China’s manufacturing base’ which the current climate has just re-inforced the amount of western companies shutting down/reducing production due to lack of componemts coming from China due to CO-vid lock/shut downs will have just proved in thier eyes that the threat of stopping goods will be enough to stop the US & EU from retaliating. Until the West starting manufacturing it’s own low level consumbles in sufficient quantities to have an effect on China’s economy and reduce the dependence this won’t change their perspective.

          • There is zero chance of the west being able to replace Chinese cheap goods. We have seen with brexit, that local workers just don’t want the cheap jobs and we need eastern European workers for it. Same happened with America and Mexico.

            The best option for the west is to hope for a more diverse approach from the other emerging markets. Plenty of other countries in Asia that could compete with china on cheap labour/lack of health and safety/no care about the environment (irony of UK gov allowing poluation of our waters aside), but that won’t happen over night, it would take decades for the infusture /plants to be established and contracts moved etc.

    • If Trump becomes president again that’s probably the end of American democracy. Putin & The CCP love idiots like Trump, so easily manipulated.

  5. That statement is hilarious if you actually think there is any difference between mainstream Dems and Republicans they are two sides of the same coin and they only serve power and money.

    • Democrats are fighting for coal and handgun companies???

      A foreigner who thinks he knows more about another’s domestic political situation is the definition of delusional narcissism.

  7. The Chinese are if one thing pragmatic. There is little gain from invading Taiwan. On balance, the economic loss and geo political cost will be severe. Whichever way one looks at this, China is beholden to a high preforming economy, jus like we in the West. That’s a lot to gamble.

    That being said, who foresaw the Argentina Junta’s actions in1982!

    • Beware of the little guy in the fight! I think China would be idiotic to invade both reputationally and likely do huge damage to the very infrastructure and industry technology they would want to obtain let alone to get the Taiwanese people on side. All this talk of invasion will surely spur Taiwan to uparm with thd support of the US industrial military complex. Bully’s will only truly learn when they get defeated.
      For the US, UK, Europe and the Free(r) World upholding democracy, international law and shared values there’s no more time to be weak.
      We’d better look at speeding up our ship build and getting them in the water and appropriately armed. The UK could be dragged into a major conflict.

      • I do wonder how much of the talk about invasion is being secretly fueled by the US to encourage arms sales to the neighboring countries. It does feel like the US arms companies are making a lot of money out of the region currently.

  8. excuse my poor grammar/punctuation – I must be in the market for new specs along with a pressing need for new knees, hip replacement , etc. as I age!

  10. China is a ticking time bomb of bad debt and irreparable demographic trends, it would sense for them to make a move while they can

    • Your Chinese economic summary is an astute observation. I can but hope they think through the consequences of any action first.

  11. what a load of rubbish the ‘big man’ and his commie paymasters are destroying the US. but hunters artworks are doing ok. except for the 10% mafia stile tax he has to kick up to the ‘big man’ Trump had the least disparity between blue-collar & white-collar in history. Biden only wants conservative people’s guns while 20 people are murdered on average each weekend just in Chicago by illegal guns. but what would you expect from a ‘legitimate’ president who won one out of 19 bell-weather counties? also, i believe semi-automatic rifles are not assault rifles

  12. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be the 21st century equivalent of the invasion of Poland. Were it to succeed, China would sit not astride, but on top of, Japan’s sea lines of communication. The strategic and economic impact of that would be earth shattering. Were it to succeed every state, that is currently politically and diplomatically “fence sitting”, would be at risk of accommodating itself to an emerging Chinese hegemony. Taiwan is the West’s (and particulary America’s) 21st century “Polish moment”. Collectively we cannot allow this strategically important democracy to be crushed.

  13. they will only invade if they are absolutely certain of victory, their whole political system is in real danger of collapse in the event of a failed invasion. Mind you when you see their military vs Taiwan’s it is hard to see anything other than an easy win. Geography will ultimately prevent the US from making a telling contribution. I just hope it is seen to be too economically risky, which is Taiwan’s best defence at the end of the day.

    • Any win would be anything but easy. I wonder how readily Chinese mums & Dads would put up with the CCP throwing away their children in the massive casualties trying to take Taiwan democracy & freedom?

      • I was thinking about it the other way. China could pound Taiwan before setting a single foot on its soil. How long will they hold out in the knowledge that defeat is (probably) inevitable?

        It would take a massive international intervention to prevent it, whether militarily or economically. Can you see that happening when most of that world doesn’t recognise Taiwan as a nation?

        • If China was cute why wouldn’t they just declare an Exclusion Zone around Taiwan and set up a Blockade, it might achieve the same results with much less Bloodshed.

          • That wouldn’t work, as it would allow the allies to mobilise, and break the blockade, without going into full out war with China. The only way China wins is to make it quick and to ensure the allies are nervous about fighting back.

          • It would put the Ball into the Allies Court so to speak – and History suggests it’s a Strategy that produces results, think of the the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Falklands War.

      • China has the significant advantage that it controls the internet and media. Think back to the empire days, no way the empire would have existed, with the mass media of today, the casualties on both sides would have shocked people, but these stories were never reported, and the casualties would be from poorer families rather than the ruling rich.

        • The Great War,saw a levelling from all Classes the loss of the golden generation my Grandfather owned a dairy in London He was killed near Arras in 1918 it didn’t matter what Class you were from during that conflict Flanders fields are proof of that

          • It took some significant losses before it reached home though, it wasn’t like today where one lost battle woudl be front page news or one lost troop.

          • Hi Steve, Tommo
            Interesting comments – but if it’s the British empire you’re referring too, then the British way of building its (mainly Eastern) empire was to use other people’s troops, Indian sepoys mainly – or its sea-power (against China). There were no mass British casualties – closest would be the 20, 000 dead of the Boer War, albeit mostly to disease.
            In WW1 we were certainly using our own men to a greater extent, for the only time – in a mass continental sized army. But there was no lost generation in WW1, certainly not in Britain – which suffered the lowest casualties of the major combatants. On average, from a typical eleven men who enlisted in the UK during 1914-1918, ten returned home. Only one man from those eleven was killed – undoubtedly a large number of men, but no generation was lost.
            Poignant though they are to visit, I do often wonder if the CWGC cemeteries in Flanders/Somme give a sometimes misleading picture of British losses in WW1.

    • Preliminary mobilisation and distribution of communist assets could not be witheld effectively from allied intelligence. Troop movements, aircraft deploying within strike range and vessels assembling etc. . Thus a surprise pre-emptive strike could not be coupled up with immediate invasion. Annihilation of the Taiwanese Air force and its fixed missile installations would be required as a prerequisite for one of the largest amphibious landings fielded since D-day. (Battle of Britain style) In order to achieve air supremacy the chinese airforce will suffer extreme casualties. To achieve this Aircraft would need to be pulled from other strategically important areas on the mainland , thus weakening those areas. In order to successfully land troops on the beach the Taiwanese navy would need to be eliminated. Again there would be (as apposed to could be) severe casualties. Taiwanese naval assests are built, trained and equipped for this one single role. Mine fields & Corvettes with hypersonic ship killing missiles to name but a few. Troops would need to survive 96 miles across a mined, submarine and missile infested strait in troop carriers, after landing upon the beach and establishing a beach head under constant fire. From an army which has trained for this single sole purpose for over 70 years. The drive inland would be hampered by hit and run guerrilla warfare tactics by reservist battalions with analmost suicidal tenacity.

    • Maybe the CCCP now has a self deluded and very puffed up sense of confidence. They don’t feel the need to try delegation, negotiation, consideration just intimidation, over exaggeration and posturing. They might get a reality check with this.

  15. For all the chest beating in the West I actually think China invading Taiwan is highly likely before 2025. You only have to look at the political ineptitude of the West in Afgan, Iraq and it’s utter impotence in the face of the Russian annexation of Crimea. In reality China could reasonably expect to establish a toehold on Taiwan within 48 hrs, far before any reinforcement arrives from anyone.
    The question therefore is how the US responds; on the eve of war will Americans be willing to fight for an island thousands of miles away from the continental US yet 100 miles off the coast of mainland China… personally despite what the US staes publically, I don’t actually think they would, in the same way they won’t go to war with Russia over Ukraine

  16. If happen s then e Us will get involved probably with arms then force then we could also be in it as long with Japan Australia and other countries but think of the fall out in the market s that would happen to china and then the sanctionens that the world apply Taiwan has a well trained arm forces and would not cave in like the afghan army

  17. I’ll just add that the Biden and the United States are about to approve a $3 trillion total spending package on infrastructure and the environment and most all of it will be paid for. This is in a country where the top marginal tax rate is about half the top rate in France. The U.S. is far from bankrupt and if we ever decided to tax wealth at a fairer rate the resources that the U.S. tax base provides would be even more vast.

  19. Taiwan is responsible for 63% of global semiconductor market share. Would the world be able to function if that supply disappeared? Of course, China produces 16% of world production and consumes 50% of world semiconductor production. Leveling and capturing Taiwan would affect the entire world.

    • does make me reconsider the urgency to try and upgrade my gfx card, cause the shortage caused by covid is nothing compared to what will happen if it all kicks off there!

  20. I hope we’ll make it quite clear that any attempt to invade Taiwan will be a fatal mistake for the CCP. Taiwan has never been CCP territory.

  22. Well Xi may be an over entitled ***** he is not daft. Invading Taiwan at the very best leaves tens of thousands of dead PLA soldiers, hundreds of thousands of dead civilians. Large amounts of the PLAN being sunk and at the very least crippling international sanctions. That’s the absolute best case scenario for China in a Taiwan invasion and its much more likely that they will end up loosing or even in a nuclear exchange with the US. I just don’t see it happening. I’m sure Xi would very quickly be booted and possibly executed. Why risk it for no real benefit. It’s not like China is short on people or land.

    • Taiwan is very different to Ukraine, China has no forces there, little local support and they would have to cross a sea filled with US and Japanese submarines with enough forces to subjugate a well armed island of 23 million people. Hybrid warfare won’t cut it.

  24. China would become an economic basket case in short order.
    Any investments in the west frozen or confiscated and any owned businesses nationalised /taken over.
    Globally China flagged ships boarded and impounded.
    Crippling sanctions against everything that they manufacture.
    And that’s before their naval forces are sunk when ever seen.

    • Yes, this would be the reality. Suicidal making war when your finances are in dire strait.
      Almost no need to even consider the likely military successes.
      AA

    • China could not even boycott Australia coal. Cut of Saudi oil and food imports and you could win a war without firing a shot.

  25. I don’t think that we can have a significant impact either way, it is literally on the other side of the world. A very long, and vulnerable line of supply for any forces we may send there.

    • I’m not so sure. A CSG dispatched to China (if the war lasted long enough for it to arrive) is more than enough to provide area denial for Chinese ships and planes, restricting their ability to operate. Additionally, I would imagine that a couple LPDs full of Royal Marines would be a headache for the Chinese outer islands in the SCS

      • Obviously the PRC don’t have any capability in doing the same to a CSG coming into its waters, or the ability to stop any amphibious forces either!!!! Not entirely sure what all their land based cruise missiles or aircraft are for then……

        • I don’t know why you’ve assumed that me saying a QE CSG wouldn’t be useless in a Taiwan conflict is tantamount to me saying the Chinese are a defenceless cakewalk

          • Perhaps it’s the way I read it and my interpretation of what you posted, in which case my error.
            If this did occur, can’t really see there being any winners, just lots of casualties.

          • Understandable, no harm done.

            Agree with your last point – it would be a catastrophe all round

      • China has literally hundreds of thousands of troops, and a huge navy. I do not think they are concerned about a few LPDs with RM on board. The risk of sending one half of our entire CSG force down there, and operating at such reach is really high, and for what? Are we prepared to lose blood and treasure over Taiwan? Perhaps, but I am not convinced we could do much more than posture, and I do not think Taiwan is significant enough in our national interest to act.

        • That is why I said the outer islands. I am not proposing that the RM would land on Hainan. Rather, they could be used to cut off and eliminate fortifications like the Paracel islands.

          I could not imagine a role where the UK goes full hog against China over Taiwan, but I could imagine a scenario where we play an auxiliary role supporting the USA’s flanks while they do the heavy lifting.

          I can’t see a scenario where the UK denies assistance to the USA and still expects to be taken seriously as an ally

          • I can’t imagine us going that far as no one in the South China Sea would allow us basing. More likely to have a fleet around Diego Garcia and Bahrain blockading the malacca straits from a distance and intercepting any oil shipments heading for Pakistan pipelines with maybe a second distant blockade around the Falkland Islands cutting off shipments of oil, iron ore and food trying to go round the bottom of South America.

        • No doubt our CSG and navy would be busy blockading the gulf and Indian Ocean along with European allies freeing up the US and others to the pacific. While the RM and Army Would be busy mopping up any Chinese bases in Africa or the Middle East. That’s how we fought the last four world wars not steaming in to enemy controlled territory on day one.

  26. Well there is a lot of rumour & not much hard fact coming out of China. It is said that China is facing a hidden civil war in the communist party. Xi is one side. He likes confrontation with the West & his faction would invade Taiwan. Xi faces re-election next year. Only Mao had 3 terms or more. The other faction wants to stop Xi getting a third term. They are not cuddly, but see no point confronting the West. Then there is a lot of debt in China. A recent survey found a fifth of firms could not pay the interest on their debts, never mind the debt itself. Evergrande construction with their multi hundred billion dollar debt are most mentioned as causing a run on banks globally, but their are many other Chinese firms in trouble.
    I read something that China already has enough coal power stations, but is building more, as thanks to the Paris Eco meeting, China’s CO2 will not be counted until 2030. These new coal stations will be mothballed in 2031, & will make money selling their carbon credits to the rest of the (gullible) world.
    Short term, if I was Biden, I would sell the ex Kuwait F/A-18C/D Hornets (40?)to Taiwan. A quick way to add an extra carrier equivalent, to its defence.

  28. Despite the vast size of the PLA and growing navy, China simply won’t have the vessels required to transport an invasion force anytime within the next 5 years. Even then, it will be akin to a rerun of D Day in size and will be signalled well in advance by the PLA requisitioning civilian vessels.
    Add to this that the only time the Taiwan Strait is calm enough for such an invasion is April and October, it’s going to be pretty obvious what the Chinese are planning.

    The Chinese would need to have a major fifth column in Taiwan in the military and political spheres to be certain of success.

    However, if Taiwan made a formal Declaration of Independence then the CCP would feel obliged to act militarily. Perhaps initially a sea and air blockade to isolate the island, then maybe an air campaign. They might simply keep this siege going indefinitely and wait Taiwan to crumble.

    • FYI China already does since they have a law that requires civilian ships (ferries etc.) to help with amphibious landings in case of need. In fact they have done exercises to fine tune ops between civilian and military. In all China is capable of deploying 1.5 million tons of vehicles, etc…

  29. Hi folks hope all is well.
    Interesting article.
    What role would the UK have and would we be prepared to support the US and Australia if the request was made? One thing China has and that is large numbers of personnel to deploy no matter the huge cost to life. Realistically I think the west will not get involved, unless we are directly affected. The EU will most certainly stand back if matters escalate, and would be happy for UK/US Australia and Japan to make the call.
    I hope I’m wrong, just a feeling happy to be convinced by you experts.
    Cheers
    George

    • I do not think it is an option for the UK to stand aside and still expect to be taken seriously in the Indo-Pacific. I’d imagine HMG would take as big a role as they can with as little risk as possible, such as patrolling the seas with a CSG and restricting the ability of the PLAAF and PLAN to manoeuvre freely

      • Hi Levi,
        Yes see your point, however, in the event of our military being put at risk, or even worse. The public at home would not support any government for a matter so far away from home. Just consider recent conflicts we have being involved.
        Cheers
        George

    • A fleet around Diego Garcia and Bahrain blockading the malacca straits from a distance and intercepting any oil shipments heading for Pakistan pipelines with maybe a second distant blockade around the Falkland Islands cutting off shipments of oil, iron ore and food trying to go round the bottom of South America. In terms of direct action our SSN’s may also transit the North Pole and conduct direct operations along the Chinese coast assuming that Taiwan can hold out for at-least a few weeks and RN and RAF assets would also be of vital importance in the North Atlantic tracking down any Chinese SSN’s that tried to do the same to the US and NATO. But our role would primarily be about freeing up US forces taking part in more direct action. If Taiwan fell I seriously doubt the US would try to retake it so likely to be limited involvement of HM forces in the Far East over Taiwan itself.

    • With you 100%. To those up for a war with China i’d ask. Remind me again what we gained from being the US’s bestest friend in Iraq and Afghanistan ? When was the last time we had a US president who didn’t regard us with contempt for us and our ‘special relationship’ At least on the surface the PM seems to understand. We’ll see how much.

    • One local CCP boss was found to have two tons of cash from bribes, hidden in his many homes. A Western online news channel was shut down in China, when it revealed Xi’s relatives have come into over $200m in assets. I suspect that if Taiwan was invaded, the West should look at (& confiscate) all that corrupt CCP party boss cash hidden in tax havens.

  30. Up until President Xi took control of the Chinese Communist party Taiwan were considering entering into negotiations with China in reunification talks. But as Mr Xi is seen as a hard liner in Taiwan they pulled back from any possible talks. Mr Xi has since gone on to increase the Chinese military expenditure by 600%. China also holds most of the UK’s and USA’s debit with the West owing China Trillions of $ and would be doing us a favour if they did invade Taiwan as we would use this as an excuse to write off the debit. That said I do believe that Mr Putin as planted a seed in Mr Xi’s brain and he will try to take Taiwan in a similar fashion to the Crimea. It is a joke to think we (The UK) will have any military influence over China they are building the equivalent of a RN each year in numbers of vessels, Even if we sailed along side the USN it would be a short bloody affair with both sides losing a lot of ships and personnel but the Chinese have little respect for the human costs with the price of life being measured in a few pence so would be the ultimate winners. Taiwan’s best defence is the Wests debit held by China.

  31. “China will invade Taiwan in next few years say analysts” .….
    Errrhmmm ……….. No, they won’t – don’t be daft.
    But good click-bait, guys. 😉

  32. We will likely need to reintroduce conscription and real battle training – as most Western armies have been decimated by budget cuts and woke ideology. You can’t fight a country like China with low numbers and low war fighting capability coupled with self loathing and hatred for your OWN country. If this happens, this will be a massive shakeup of our societies. Massive. So severe they may not survive after a war with China.

  33. I think that it would be a huge gamble, as they could lose a lot of what they have built up over the last 25 years. I see no real reason to bother with armed invasion. Whichever way it goes, it will be costly for all involved and could put back any lasting treaties for decades. I’m pretty sure that it will cause anger and unrest among the people, when they start losing family members. Really, this sort of aggression just take a small island would be very costly, though they do seem set on fencing off the whole area for their own benefit.

    As usual with these incidents, there will always be the very real problem of it spiraling and dragging other countries into the fight. We are already seeing the lines being drawn.

    War is no good to anyone. Most people accept that, but there will always be people with that as their agenda. Let’s hope tempers cool and it blows over.

  34. Why would China change its present strategy. It’s Mercantile strategy is managing the west very well indeed. It’s got a strategy to gain influence in new markets as well as opening up access to new resources.

    Its population is well controlled and it has a good balance of external and internal. boggy men, there is economic growth.

    I can only see China acting in overtly aggressive causing a war way if:

    1) it starts to lose control of its population
    2) it cannot access critical resource
    3) it losses its markets and ecconomic growth stalls

    china is not a tin pot unstable dictatorship, its a wealthy Stable superpower.

    in my personal view what will trigger China into a war is likely it be more than a decade in the future and could include.

    1) the west cutting off its markets or access to critical resources, leading to ecconomic hardship and the population becoming poorly controlled due to unemployment, increased poverty etc.

    in this case it’s likely that China and the west will come into conflict over resource rich areas of the world or access to markets.

    2) food security, global warming models suggest that China will be in an area of the planet in which sustaining food for large populations will be very difficult. So within 20-50 years it’s going to be looking for food production land.

    in this case either Russia comes to an arrangement with China in regards to its empty eastern Asian land mass or China will take it through aggressive action. The test will be if the west will allow Aggressive annexation to happen or if it will impose sanctions which may then rigger conflict between China and the west.

  35. Another interesting development!

    Chinese, Russian navies conclude first joint patrols in Western Pacific27 OCTOBER 2021

    The Chinese and Russian navies have concluded their first-ever joint patrols in international waters east of Japan in the Western Pacific: a further indication of the growing defence co-operation between the two countries that has been raising concerns among the United States and its allies.

    https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/chinese-russian-navies-conclude-first-joint-patrols-in-western-pacific

    • Also.

      JSM enters series production27 OCTOBER 2021

       Joint Strike Missile (JSM) being released from the F-35A AF-01 instrumented test platform over Edwards Air Force Base, California. Series production of JSM for the Royal Norwegian Air Force commenced on 21 October, with the signing of an approximately USD473.3 million contract between the Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency and Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. (Norwegian Defence Materiel Agency)

      https://www.janes.com/defence-news/defence/latest/jsm-enters-series-production

  37. I do believe this will happen but not how people expect it. Most likely the PLA already have sleeper units and individuals living covertly in Taiwan. They will group when the command is given and maybe take on the Taiwanese from being their front line. It will be something unconventional.

  38. This move would not look good on the international front the Taiwanese have a well trained armed forces which would cause the chinese a major headache , Taiwan would get the backing that would come the US JAPAN and other countries including us as well i expect their would major deaths and injuries on both sides and this would not look good to the people of china when body bags started returning which could cause their government trouble in the long run no i think they will play the long game we will we won,t pressure

  39. “The UK has the highest national debt since the second war and cannot afford more debt”

    Rubbish! the UK has still less than half of the debt as a proportion of GNP as at the end of WW2 at 240%.

  40. Would China invade Taiwan, possibly but it would mean that China becomes isolated in the world ecconomy. Does the People’s Repulic of China have a territorial claim to the Republic of China, NO. If anything the ROC has a territorial and historic claim to the PRC. Afterall mainland China is lands taken by force by communisim from the ROC.

    So what is the PRC thinking, I suspect paranoia, by taking Taiwan they push the EEZ out a further 200 nmi. The trade routes or for that matter freedom of navigation for Western warships is pushed out beyond the second Island chain. The Taiwan Strait becomes an inland waterway which no other nation can put a warship in. Its almost as if the PRC government is expecting the US, Japan, UK to come over the horizon and invade. Which is totally stupid, first and foremost the country is to big, then there are to many people to control even if all of NATO invaded and won. A British politicain once said during the American War of Independence, yes we can win this war but what then we cannot police the country its two big, we don’t have the man power.

    What the PRC needs to understand is Western nations want to trade, fair trade, fair pricies and an equal playing field. What the PRC seem to see is demands from the West, what we see is we disagree with their methods.

    How would I deal with the situation, two fold. One, by disengaging from the PRC at an ecconomic level, trade finance etc. Two, by telling the PRC any attack on Taiwan would be an attack on NATO and the nations of the Commonwealth. To get point two in place would mean a huge political meeting in secret but it should be possible. it should also be stressed that if the people of Taiwan wanted to join the PRC then they can, that the defence pact for Taiwan is not a first strike but defence, and that Taiwan would only have extra defence capabilities such as AWACS, air defence combat aircraft etc. The defence agreement does not need to be as formal as the NATO agreement but a ‘ gentlemans hanshake’, that is made public.

  41. China could in all honestly invade and probably take Taiwan, however would the CCP survive the fallout, it would be an incredibly phyric victory, the modern Chinese populace have not seen a modern war, they belive in the superiority of the party but if that party brings them bodybags in the tens of thousands and still hold unshakeable belief in itself? I’m not so sure, yes they could take taiwan but could they remain in Control after?

  42. After what has happened in the Ukraine recently I would say arm Taiwan to their back teeth. It will piss off the Chinese but if history has taught us anything it is that you cannot appease bullies.

  43. I hope it does not happen. Taiwan needs to be recognised by more countries as its own country. I hope Australia stands up to China and finally recognises Taiwan as its own country.

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