Scottish independence would undermine the nation’s shipbuilding industry by cutting off vital UK defence contracts, warned Paul Sweeney MSP.
Without this support, he cautioned, shipyards would face significant production challenges and be forced into poorly managed commercial diversification, risking long-term decline.
In an exclusive interview, Sweeney criticised the lack of government action from both the UK and Scottish Governments and highlighted key challenges facing Scottish shipyards today.
Sweeney recalled that, during the 2014 independence referendum, contingency plans were in place to relocate vital shipbuilding operations out of Scotland if a ‘Yes’ vote prevailed.
“As much as it is now a distant prospect, when I worked at BAE Systems during the 2014 referendum, we had a live contingency plan to eventually move operations to the sites at Barrow and Portsmouth in the event independence were to happen, after the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier programme wound down,” Sweeney revealed.
He emphasised that UK defence contracts, particularly for the Royal Navy, have driven recent modernisation and investment in major Scottish shipyards.
“The simple fact is that the recent modernisation of the shipyards at Govan, Scotstoun and Rosyth has been stimulated by the demand signal created by the Type 26 and Type 31 frigate programmes for the UK Royal Navy. A separate Scottish navy would have a small fraction of that demand signal, which in isolation would be an insufficient critical mass to sustain production without commercial diversification.”
Sweeney warned that without continued access to these major defence contracts, Scottish shipyards would be forced to rely on commercial diversification—a transition that, he argues, is currently being mismanaged.
One of the most significant setbacks, according to Sweeney, has been the Scottish Government’s handling of Ferguson Marine, which was rescued from administration in 2014 but remains financially unstable due to mismanagement and project delays.
“To test this hypothetical scenario further, you only have to look at the debacle with the MV Glen Sannox and MV Glen Rosa at Ferguson Marine, which originated in the Scottish Government’s deal with Jim McColl’s Clyde Blowers Capital to rescue the shipyard from administration in August 2014, a month before the independence referendum,” Sweeney said.
He cited the project’s delays and budget overruns as key examples of how not to manage shipbuilding contracts.
“That ferry programme has become a case study in how not to manage a commercial shipbuilding project, and despite operating the second largest public sector fleet after the Royal Navy, with 36 vessels, most of the new Caledonian MacBrayne fleet is now being built by Cemre Shipyard in Turkey due to the scandalous failure of the Scottish Government to make the most of that opportunity of reviving Ferguson Marine a decade ago to transform the shipyard into a competitive ‘ferry factory’ by leveraging the procurement of the CalMac fleet effectively.”
Currently, Ferguson Marine is kept afloat primarily by subcontract work from BAE Systems’ Type 26 programme, rather than from its own independent commercial projects.
“So whilst those recent CalMac ferry orders flow overseas, it is only subcontract work from BAE Systems for the Type 26 programme that is keeping the Scottish Government-owned Ferguson Marine going at present, with its future hinging on winning CalMac’s Small Vessel Replacement Programme later this year,” Sweeney warned.
The yard’s future could be secured if it wins the upcoming CalMac programme, but Sweeney remains concerned that public procurement inefficiencies could lead to further missed opportunities.
Sweeney also expressed frustration over what he described as a lack of action from the Scottish Government, despite offering practical ideas for reviving and diversifying the industry.
“I have offered plenty of constructive ideas to the Scottish Government about how to improve our public procurement and using the state investment bank to provide ship finance products so as to support the development of commercial shipbuilding in Scotland like competitor nations do, but so far my suggestions have been ignored by Scottish Ministers.”
He highlighted the success of competitor nations, such as Turkey, that have invested strategically in their shipbuilding industries through government-backed financing and efficient public procurement. Sweeney argued that Scotland could achieve similar results if ministers were willing to act on his recommendations.
Sweeney’s broader message was clear: without decisive action, Scotland’s shipbuilding sector risks becoming reliant on short-term contracts or facing potential collapse. He urged the Scottish Government to develop a long-term strategy that prioritises investment, public procurement reform, and support for commercial diversification.
I’m amazed anyone is still asking this question. It’s bleeding obvious. The only real question is, do supporters of independence care…? Probably not.
It’s not just the supporters of independance who don’t care, it’s the SNP politicians who are happy for those workers to pay the price of their desire for power. We all need to be watchful of those who seek power.
it could and it should. the embarrassing performance of the CLYDE, and the low number of yards to provide completion does make it immune to cancellation or reduction of orders if a negative outcome from independence happened, id have very little sympathy for the yards
I ran this article through an AI summary tool…
“MP needs some press coverage – says vaguely combative thing”
Hi Charles, I’ve been wanting to ask him about this for weeks and it was me that arranged the interview. I’d dare say he doesn’t need the coverage in a niche defence site, who does?
I’ve met Paul Sweeney a few times, Charles; before moving into politics, Paul was employed by BAE – and worked in Glasgow on the Type 45 programme. He is genuinely interested in shipbuilding – and has some expertise in the subject.
Slow news week.
Tiresome.
Not really, no, it’s actually been pretty busy.
The Navantia-H&W deal completed this week. Their plans would be more worthy of an investigative article.
By all means, if you’re working on one let one of us know and we’ll publish it
See Navy Lookout on 29 January. They have a good look at the H&W acquisition.
🙏
FFS not this recycled story YET AGAIN!!! 🤦🏻♂️
More than anything these independence stories harm the reputation of this site.
I interviewed the man last week, recycled from when?
I agree with George.
This is now primary sourced material so worth writing up.
Sure SNP have self sabotaged to an incredible extent but the effect on naval shipbuilding added to the Glen B*****x fiasco at Ferguson tells you all you need to know about their economic competence.
Let’s face it without RN contracts Scottish shipbuilding would become extinct. They thus far have proved uncompetitive in the commercial sector being out performed by asian and European alternatives in Spain and France. If Scotland did become independent it is almost certain that the flow of RN borders would be phased out as we have always built our warships at home.
I believe Scotland is better off in the Union and we are all better of for having Scotland with us.
As someone born in Dundee you could say I have a stake in this. At my age though not really. I am not a fan of any political body far less the SNP. The SNP were the first real protest vote. Scotland is a socialist country and traditionly voted Labour. Yes Scotland benefits from the Barnet formula. That apart Scotland suffered from the same lack of investment that happens if you live north of Watford. The further north the less you get. So it’s an easy sell, vote SNP you get the world. Only you don’t. Boris levelling up. No he did not. Free gear Kier cuts to A1 improvements north of Newcastle and no money for Tyne bridges. So voter apathy.
Is the SNP incompetent? No more than any other party. What they suffer is the same as any other party. For your first years you blame the previous lot. Once you have been in power a number of years your mistakes have to be owned. In the commercial world you you make mistakes to often you go bust. Most politicians have never run a raffle far less a business. Look at our current chancellor , dodgy CV and all.
So could or should the SNP have a chance of saving a Scottish shipbuilding industry. For me the answer is no on both counts. Could large vessels be built after independence ? Not if the UK government pulled the plug.
What is the point in this question yet again? Of course it would! All the complex military ship building would have to move to a UK country, that’s UK policy, has been for years and won’t change to accommodate tiny Scotland.
Why do they keep running this utterly pointless article. Are we having an independence vote NO
are we likely to have an independence vote NO
So why keep poking at an open would and making sure it doesn’t have a chance of healing ??
Is the BAE system still hiring skilled foreign workers?
It will never happen. Support for the SNP has never hit more than 37% in an election. Average it out these past few years and it sits around 27% of people who are eligible to vote.
After 18 years it’s the ones who believe Mel Gibson is WIlliam Wallace. Swinney is a busted flush, there will be no referendum stop going on about it.
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