The workforce needed to build the Type 26 and Type 31 frigates and to prepare for the Dreadnought-class submarines will struggle to meet projected demand at current training levels, according to a report by the Scottish Affairs Committee.
The report describes the two frigate programmes as central to Scotland’s naval shipbuilding sector and expected to provide long-term opportunities for export-led growth, while warning that the skills pipeline behind them is not keeping pace.
It states that those major programmes “require a sustained pipeline of highly skilled workers which, at current levels, will struggle to meet projected demand”.
Mark Stead, Senior Vice President for Radar and Advanced Targeting at Leonardo, told the committee: “We are not getting enough people into those planned training programmes.”
The committee sets out what is at stake in the frigate orders now on the books.
The £10 billion agreement to supply Norway with Type 26 frigates, announced in August 2025, is expected to support 2,000 jobs at BAE Systems’ shipyards in Glasgow and a further 2,000 roles across the United Kingdom maritime supply chain until the late 2030s, along with 103 Scottish businesses including 54 small and medium-sized enterprises.
Neil Holm, Chief Operating Officer at BAE Systems, drew attention to the Type 26 securing orders from Australia and Canada, and said he hoped a Norwegian order would “sustain shipbuilding and defence on the Clyde well into the next decade”.
The committee’s own conclusion attaches a condition to that prospect, stating that meeting rising demand for defence capability, particularly in shipbuilding, aerospace and advanced technologies, “offers the prospect of expanding the number of highly skilled, well-paid jobs in Scotland”, while warning that “inconsistent funding and stop-start procurement weaken sovereign capability, workforce retention and the longer-term value that the Scottish defence sector can provide”.
The report records doubts raised during the inquiry about whether planned spending is sufficient.
Chief of the Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton has said the armed forces are currently “forecasting to spend more than the budget we have”, in evidence to the Defence Committee cited by the Scottish Affairs Committee.
Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, co-author of the Strategic Defence Review, warned in April that the government is “not willing to make the necessary investment” in defence, saying defence spending must take priority over other public expenditure because the threat to British liberty is “no longer theoretical”.
The report also records that the Defence Investment Plan followed the resignations of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns in June, amid concerns funding was insufficient to deliver the review, and that while the plan allocated £298 billion over four years, military chiefs reportedly sought an additional £28 billion.
The committee heard evidence on the consequences of uncertainty for firms waiting on decisions.
Aeralis, a British aerospace start-up with planned operations in Ayrshire, told the committee that delay directly undermined its financial position by creating prolonged uncertainty over future defence spending decisions and programme commitments, making it harder to secure and sustain investment. The company entered administration on 14 May 2026, attributing its collapse to sustained pressure on cashflow caused by those delays alongside wider geopolitical factors.
Witnesses also warned that a lack of certainty signals to global defence firms that they should invest somewhere else, with the United Kingdom in strong competition with other markets.
Patricia Ferguson, chair of the committee, said Scotland has a world-leading defence sector and is well placed to benefit from increased spending, “however, unless long-standing skills shortages are addressed, this opportunity could be missed”.
