Israel shifts military focus north

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signalled that his armed forces will shortly shift the focus of its military activities north to its border with Lebanon.

Earlier this week, he said that the “intense phase of fighting Hamas in Gaza is nearly over”.

The war in Gaza may be slowly winding down, but it has definitely not ended. The IDF is finalising its current operations in Rafah in the south and will turn to a raid-based strategy rather than a wholescale invasion, much as it has done in the rest of Gaza. The drawdown in operations will allow the IDF to thin out and commit its troops elsewhere.

Hamas has not been defeated but has been severely mauled, and its military potential much reduced and degraded.

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It now looks as if Israel will be content to maintain an acceptable level of violence in Gaza for the foreseeable future while it continues to hunt down and eliminate the surviving Hamas leadership “by other means”.

Hezbollah, Hamas’ ally in south Lebanon, has vowed to continue to lob missiles into northern Israel until peace comes to Gaza, a prospect still some way in the future if it ever comes to pass. And so now Israel has to confront its enemy in the north.

Hezbollah is a much more dangerous enemy than Hamas. While the latter could field perhaps 30,000 fighters in Gaza at the start of the conflict there, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah once boasted that he could call upon 100,000 trained fighters.

Whilst most observers reckon this is an exaggeration, they may actually be able to call upon up to 50,000 regular and reserve personnel, and they are directly sponsored, armed, and trained by Iran, Israel’s sworn enemy. Its strategy against Israel is largely based on its rocket and missile armoury, of which it may have as many as 120,000.

They have been launching missiles, rockets, and drones into northern Israel since the present round of conflict began with Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7th October last year. 

Hezbollah is no stranger to conflict with Israel, having fought against them in conventional and unconventional operations over the past forty years. In addition to the Lebanese Civil War from 1975-1990, they fought against the IDF in various conflicts in the early part of this century and have been actively involved in both the Syrian and Yemen civil wars. Most recently they have threatened to target Cyprus if it “opens its airports and bases to Israeli forces”. 

Their recent activity in support of their Hamas allies has been a thorn in Israel’s side since well before the start of the Gaza operation, and now it looks as if Netanyahu’s government has run out of patience and is determined to do something about it.

Both Hezbollah and Israel say they don’t want another war in south Lebanon, but it may be too late to prevent it. On paper, the IDF should be able to sweep Hezbollah aside with ease and destroy it, but I suspect few in Israel will relish yet another military foray into southern Lebanon, although Netanyahu has declared that his forces are strong and powerful enough to fight on multiple fronts if need be.

The bigger worry, of course, is that any direct confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah has the potential to bring in Iran in support of its proxies and Israel’s allies to intervene physically on its behalf. 

As I have written oftentimes before, at some point the USA is going to have to deal with Iran. Will this prove to be the tipping point, or will wiser heads prevail? 

First published in the Daily Express, printed here with permission. Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a defence analyst and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk.