In its latest intelligence update, the British Ministry of Defence have discussed Russian aircraft losses and surge capacity of the Russia Aerospace Forces.
According to the Ministry of Defence:
“The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have lost approximately 90 fixed-wing aircraft in combat since February 2022. It has also been flying some of its combat aircraft types far more intensively than in peace time. All aircraft have a projected lifespan, in flying hours. It is highly likely that with this extra wartime use, Russia is eating into many of its airframes’ lifespans far more quickly than the VKS planned for.
The need for extra maintenance is complicated by a shortage of spare parts because of increasing demand and international sanctions. The VKS maintains the ability to surge sortie rates over occupied Ukraine. However, as the war continues much longer than the Russian Ministry of Defence originally planned for, wear and tear of airframes is likely to have reduced the viability of the VKS’s long-term tactical air power.”
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 28 September 2023.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/U7iZt7zSKn
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/JtoJY2PI01
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) September 28, 2023
Unless you are a Russian this is good news, and the comments regarding increased usage and maintenance are interesting as that impacts their long term capabilities.
But as the RAF / FAA are carrying out more deployments and an increased tempo of operations surely we must be doing the same to our already tiny force of front line combat aircraft ? That’s just a logical conclusion !
At present we seem to be the only country in Europe who have ordered precisely zero new Aircraft post 2022 !
No orders for a new Tranche of Typhoons or F35B, absolute zilch 🤔
This had crossed my mind in the past. Our air force is smaller than France and barely bigger than a number of other nations, and yet used way more often. Does raise questions of how many could be realistically fielded if needed and for how long.
Ours is much newer and far more capable though. Do you want large fleets of old airframes sitting around or the very latest and most capable aircraft.
What we need Jim is a rebuilding of our fast air, back to absolute minimum levels, i.e 12 squadrons.
Taking out the joint manned 12 squadron, I believe we currently field 7 fast jet squadrons, 6 Thypoon and one F35.
That is a woefully inadequate and dangerously low number.
But combined with NATO assets. Our fast jets are a deadly combination. The Russian performance over Ukraine tells us NATO fast air would wipe them out. If they can’t even achieve air superiority over Ukraine then what chance do they have against the rest of NATO. I would give their chances a firm zero.
If it’s either or then the latter but worryingly how long would they last in a conflict in Europe in which case some compromise is surely preferable. No point winning the first month or two but losing the war following months or nothing against ancient adversaries.
I think the fact Russia has lost 90 aircraft and hasn’t achieved air superiority over Ukraine says they wouldn’t stand a chance against NATO fast jets. We are investing in capability. £2.35bn on Typhoon upgrades. More F35s are coming. A tranche 2 order won’t be far away. NATO has mass working together. That’s the idea. It isn’t going to be the RAF V Russia or China on our own. We would all like to see more numbers, but capability comes first. And NATO has capability and mass that Russia couldn’t come close to matching. USAFE assets alone could wipe out Russia forces. Typhoon is at the top of its game. F35 brings our first 5th gen capability to UK forces.
Massive NATO mistake was not threatening Russia with declaring a NO Fly zone over Ukraine winter 21/22.
I urged this but I’m just a numpty. Britain and the USA it should not be forgotten had Guaranteed Ukraine’s independence.
A no fly zone would have dragged NATO directly into the conflict.
Like in all three services there cut back way to much it should have never got to this point. The worring thing is the government don’t same to bother 😏
Is it smaller than France? They have 90 rafale is squadrons and 55 mirage 2000D. The navy has 40 rafale but that includes test aircraft etc.
the U.K. has 27 f35b and 137 typhoons.
Both quite even, with the uk having 5th gen F35 instead of mirage. Typhoon and rafale are roughly similar.
Luckily both countries are allies and will not fight each other.
Unfortunately, the total fleet only tells part of the story.
Actual operational aircraft with a pilot and ready to take on angry men is actually 75 ish Thypoons and 12 F35B…
If you factor in use reserves and pushing the OCU’s into the gaps, that number is probably 120 total aircraft….
Of that, what’s sustainably deployable?? Not a short term deployment, but a sustained combat operation that took months. Let’s say a hypothetical new war in Korea, what fast air could the UK currently contribute?
24 Thypoon (at a push) and currently ‘0’ F35B.
A single squadron of F35’s doesn’t represent a combat deployable force in any sustainable way.
We have to reach three F35B squadrons to have a truly sustainable carrier strike force, that could be forward deployed for months if needed.
How many aircraft have the Russians been able to muster constantly?
That is without attrition from 4.5 and 5th Gen platforms with state-of-the-art A->A missiles?
Once the attrition rate really went up I could see the ‘unservicibiltiy’ of frames mutinying out of control TBH.
Also if there was a conventional fight with Russia we would have the nordics (Norway + Denmark + Sweden + Finland), Poles, Lithuanians, Romanians, Dutch and Italians with us and that is a massive airforce and ground force anyway.
I think that is a full summary?
Yep that just about sums up our allies. Great bunch.
I like it 😉
Lithuania does Not have an air force! None of the Baltic States have.
But the do have ground forces?
I did say “ and that is a massive airforce and ground force anyway.”
They just have a small number of small transport aircraft a few utility helo’s.
A few squadrons of Vampires?
Morning MS, you might e a tad low on F35 numbers, but not by much.
Cabs 34 and 35 have just come off the production line and are in testing prior to delivery.
F35 Lots 15-17 contain our next 13 aircraft (2,4,7) which will bring us upto our initial 48. The last 13 are due to be delivered by 2025, after that numbers are anyone’s guess!
I thought that it was low but folks tend to jump all over you if you over estimate so I thought go in low😂😂😂.
With the budget the U.K. has for defence and everything it has to fund I think it does ok.
Well another 26. But not sure Sunak and Hunt will sign off on it. Might be in for some more Tory 🚣♂️🚣♀️🚣🚣♀️🚣♂️🚣♀️🚣🚣♂️🛶
Yes, that does seem to be the current line coming out of MOD. Personally would like to see another 30-40 airframes, bringing us up to 90 with the extra 3 test cabs in the US. It wouldn’t be a horrendous amount for te budget to contend with if spread over say 5 years (2026-2031ish).
Plenty of time to sort out all the manpower/infrastructure/logistical requirements.
As others have posted below, can’t see Tempest arriving until late 2030 at the earliest, so what we actually need is a bit of vision and determination.
👍👍
Hi MS,
That 137 Typhoon number includes Tranche 1; the effective RAF Typhoon fleet stands at 107.
Even worse, Typhoon1s to be deleted without replacement. Looking at the timescale of F35 development, Tempest won’t be combat ready until the late 2030s at the earliest. It is obvious we need a further order of Typhoons to bridge that gap. Even if numbers actually deployed didn’t increase much because of pilot shortages, we would be able to replace losses as well as reduce the average use of each airframe.
👍 agree
👍
It’s patently bloody obvious to us that an order of 60 all singing all dancing Tranche 4 Thypoons should be made for the RAF, with all the Tranche 2 and 3 upgraded to the same standard.
F35B orders should be 90, to sustain 4 operational squadrons.
👍👍👍
Ye agree
So how are you paying for that wish list of extra Typhoons? What would you cut to get it? Because we all know the defence budget isn’t going to increase to fund that kind of fleet. The money is going on capability. P4E and ECRS mk2 radar. £2.35bn’s worth.
We wont need to cut anything Robert- Sunak and Hunt are putting up taxes to rack in an extra £114 billion. that should cover the additional aircraft, stores, munitions as well as add 5-10K back to the army and build type 32, type 83 and Aukus.
So its all going to be fine.
But we both know government spending doesn’t work that way.
Some of that money raised, is going towards subsidising imported LNG to generate electricity because the wind farms built cannot transmit all the electricity generated,
from North to South due to the lack of transmission capacity.
Billions to produce ECRS2 over a decade and to finally trickle through to a mear handful of airframes is not what I call money well spent Robert, it’s quite frankly pathetic…..
It’s slated for service around 2030, when most first tier air forces will have stopped using mechanically scanned radars for at least 10 years by that point.
The technology already going into the bench run and forthcoming AGP85 is a whole generation on again and it’s properly funded development programme will likely see it fielded in F35 at about the same time (2030) as ECRS mk2 is ‘finally’ rolled out at at its painful glacial, slug slow pace … already outdated!
It’s just another example of we shovel billions into a hole in the ground…..
I think GCAP’s radar will be on a par with AGP-85 and ECR mk2 won’t do a great deal to inform it as it’s a developmental dead end, technology has simply moved on….
Possibly the only technology GCAP’s radar will utilise is it’s repositional Array, but if it actually gets side mounted arrays too, maybe not…..
Totally agree but knobs in government won’t spend the money. But don’t mind putting taxes interest rates up fuel etc. tossers 😂
We are due to scrap 30 typhoon’s in 2 years only half way through airframe life on average so not sure that’s the case, we have a tendency to cut aircraft well before we need to.
We can always propose UK a slot in Rafale production line if you feel the need 😉
It last long, requieres less maintenance, etc…
But overall, even with combat drones, the need for a cheaper alternative to heavy fighter bombers is felt all along Europe, just to maintain numbers and sustain losses. The progress of radar technologies makes it unavoidable.
Second point is the need for a cheap stand off missile, for SEAD.
The magic of the sylver bullet is fading rapidly, with the leassons learned in Ukraine.
May be Grippen would be wise after all. Put on it a motor of Eurofighter and you have the machine to create so badly missed numbers.
Spear EW is coming which when coupled with F35 or typhoon will be world beater.
And the world will be better😉
Indeed it’s about saving money not meeting needs even when it seems we are under threat as we are now. But to Rishi and co it’s all ‘quiet on the home front’ so he can ignore it while prioritising desperate attempts to win the next election. As we saw in the thirties the voters don’t care about defence till it’s at your door, they were literally hiding aircraft production figures back then from the public in fear of the reaction to rearmament. Little has changed despite what happened as a result in that instance.
Very interesting, have never before read that aircraft production rates were deliberately w/held/concealed from British public during the pre-war period. Operational security issue or political climate? Certainly have read accounts that gradually discerning the production rates of Hurricanes and Spitfires during the Battle of Britain was a very unpleasant surprise for the Luftwaffe. 🤔
Spot on, we represent about 5% of the population, who prioritise defence as actually being quite important!
95% don’t give a toss or indeed give it a second thought…. until the balloon goes up that is!
No most of the population read the Daily Fail or Tellielies. They believe we have thousands of tanks. A single type 45 destroyer can take on and defeat an entire country and then sail back home for tea and cakes. They genuinely think the RAF has hundreds of aircraft.
It’s very sad, few genuinely know or could be arsed to find out the perilous state of affairs.
Second that 👍
Third 👍
Very true 👍
If and it’s a big if there are spare pilots, maintainers, parts to keep the T1s going then it seems a silly move.
I have a feeling the U.K. doesn’t have enough crews and the aircraft require a costly update. If that’s the case it’s probably better to focus on the newer aircraft.
Perhaps they can be sold or stored with the spares for some more years.
Aircraft are so expensive now it’s a tough call when budgets are stretched.
Obviously ol’ big ears wife doesn’t have shares in any defence companies. That’s how spending policy is dictated these days…
Considering Russian fast jet engines have a notoriously short overhaul life, they must be getting increasingly into swapping engines around the fleet by now to keep the combat force flying.
Russian forces have had an absolute disaster in Ukraine. The plan to take over the country with few casualties in a few weeks didn’t work out.
The losses will only continue. I wish they would call it a day and go back to Russian borders.
Important is the types of aircraft lost aswell. They are costly to replace and some can’t be replaced.
Oh dear, how sad, never mind. 🙃
🤣🤣🤣
Putin will not give ,true losses will continue but we all know he doesn’t care about is troops it’s show of weakness of there turn back.Would love to Get up one morning for work put the BBC news on to hear is troops are refusing to fight . 🙏
I remember day 1 of the conflict thinking the Russians have gone in too light, not enough firepower, not enough troops, wrong tactics and didn’t achieve SEAD or air superiority. You can’t invade and subjugate a country with 50 million people and twice the size of the auK and France together with <500K troops deployed. Result a long drawn out attritional war. Those failings sit on Putin's door.
Perhaps they were looking for a short war. Where Ukraine agreed to not join NATO and leave Crimea and dombas alone.
That was agreed before Boris went over and killed it.
Yeah I thought exactly the same a week or so before the invasion. It was obvious he was massing for an invasion but it seemed madness with about 200k of troops, I couldn’t understand how he could take territories with with less than 500k or more, no one has really tried it on that scale since WW2 and to take land in that way on a gigantic front, taking cities and towns would need many more troops, for that reason I then doubted the obvious invasion to come (remember the short term tents and medi centres, no way an excercise). I looked at the map and guessed he would want a new border based on the Dnipro river and take Kyiv and create some sort of new puppet country, but with 200k troops how was that ever possible, I assumed he thought many ethnic Russians would be the other factor to achieve that.
I wonder how many rotorcraft they’ve lost in addition to that?
I believe in excess of 50 Ka52’s have been turned
(briefly) into Ukrainian hover mowers…..
God knows how many Mi24’s and Mi8/17’s they have lost….
Certainly as Ukraine breaks out and they might well do soon) and bring their mobile Air Defence with them, the Russians will have little choice but throw everything at the advance to stop themselves being cut off in the Crimea… Their losses will grow exponentially…
What’s not listed in this number are how many Rusfacist aircraft have been destroyed on the ground? Key aircraft like bombers, transport and AWACs all of which are strategic enablers.
Oh well. Their fault. They started the war and they will have to forgive Ukraine for finishing it.
I wonder if this number also includes the numbers Russia shot down itself. Add an SU35 to that list in the last few days. Russian air defence has been effective at taking out its own aircraft so far.
The latest from Oryx, is that Russia have lost 81 combat aircraft, 3 strategic bombers, 2 C2 aircraft and 6 transport aircraft. Of these the Su-25 has had the greatest loss, with 30 airframes, followed by the Su-34 at 22.
Helicopter wise, Russia have lost 92, with the Ka-52 being the highest at 44, followed by the Mil-8/17 at 26. The Mil-24/35 its 17 and the Mil-28 is at 12. Oryx do include a number of unknown Russian aircraft.
Ukraine lost a shed load of aircraft in the first two days of the invasion. But their combat aircraft losses are at 67, which includes 22 Mig-29s, 17 Su-24s, 16 Su-25 and 12 Su-27s.
Helicopter wise, they have lost 37, including 26 Mil-8s,4 Mil-24s and a few others.
List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine – Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)
Add another to the list, as the Russians shot down one of their own SU35s over Tokmak last night.
Oh dear 🤗
Nice- it is the SU35 series that the Russians are struggling to produce or replace.
Poor IFF systems is the only answer. I remember the Israeli air force in 2021 managed to get a Russian S400 series battery in Syria to fire at a flight of F16s that then led the missiles onto the flight path of a closing Ilyushin transport inbound from Russia with some rotational special forces, specialists and stores- result was the missile switched to the larger Russian target and shot their own aircraft down.
The Russian’s were peeved but couldn’t do anything about it as they would have to have admitted they had deliberately fired at the Israeli aircraft.
It was the Syrians that fired. Result upgrade of Syrian air defence systems to prevent a repeat.