A single Ukrainian drone attack on Novorossiysk has significantly degraded the land-attack cruise missile capability of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, accounting for forty per cent of its Kalibr-capable surface ships, according to a Defence Intelligence update published by the UK Ministry of Defence.
In its update on Thursday, Defence Intelligence said: “Ukraine has launched two large scale uncrewed aerial system (UAS) attacks against the Russian Novorossiysk Naval Facility and Commercial Port within the last two months. The 08-09 September 2026 attack led to successful strikes against a GRIGOROVICH class frigate and a SVIYAZHSK light-frigate.”
It went on: “Both vessels have likely sustained sufficient damage to prevent them taking part in KALIBR Land-attack Cruise Missile (LACM) firings into Ukraine, likely for the short-medium term. This single attack has significantly degraded the LACM strike capabilities of the Black Sea Fleet, representing 40% of the KALIBR-capable surface fleet.”
Two ships out of action amounting to two fifths of the capability says as much about the size of the remaining fleet as it does about the damage. Russia has been firing Kalibr missiles at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure from Black Sea platforms since the opening days of the full-scale invasion, and the surface ships able to carry them have never been numerous.
The Admiral Grigorovich class are Project 11356R frigates, the newest conventional surface combatants the Black Sea Fleet has, each able to carry Kalibr in a vertical launch system. Defence Intelligence describes the second vessel as a Sviyazhsk light-frigate, a smaller Kalibr-armed surface combatant.
Ukrainian strikes drove Russian warships out of Sevastopol over the course of 2023 and 2024, and the Krasnodar Krai port became the main operating base for what remained. Pushing the fleet east was supposed to put it beyond easy reach.
Defence Intelligence uses a probability yardstick in which “likely” sits between 55 and 75 per cent, so the assessment that both ships cannot take part in Kalibr firings is a confident judgement without being a certainty. The phrase short to medium term carries no fixed definition, though repairs to a vertical launch system and the surrounding structure on a frigate are not quick work, particularly in a yard under periodic attack.
UK Defence Intelligence publishes its guidance on the use of probabilistic language at this link.
