Russia violated European airspace 20 times in October, according to a report by Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) under the National Security and Defence Council, cited by Ukrainian news outlet UNN on 1 November.
The CCD said the incidents, recorded between 1 and 30 October, included “both deliberate provocations and violations of airspace by drones and planes, as well as hybrid attacks by unidentified drones, which were probably used by Russia.”
Most violations were reported over Lithuania, with others occurring in Norway, Belgium, Finland, Spain, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. The report did not specify the types of aircraft involved.
The agency noted that the frequency of incursions “remains at the September level” but that their “intensity decreased ahead of US President Donald Trump’s conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, as well as during the period of waiting for the agreement on the date of their meeting.”
According to the CCD, the continuing provocations indicate that “the Kremlin does not seek an end to the war, but on the contrary continues the escalation, using hybrid provocations.” The statement concluded that “it is necessary to increase pressure on Russia to force it to peace.”
UNN also recalled that Polish forces intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea the day before the report’s release, the third such incident in a week.
The problem that is being missed is the Russian government only really understands hard capabilities and the willingness to use them.. if they put 20 drones over NATO space with almost no response that tells Russia something about will. The Only answer is to make 20 incursions back at them, NATO needs to start pushing ISTAR drones into Russian airspace in response..
Now people may say this edges closer to war, but the only way to deter war is if you are strong in the 3 Cs of deterrent and if you don’t communicate credibility by using your capability to match you enemies actions you have no deterrent and you will be at war.. inaction is a choice and it communicates a lack of credibility.. the Russian public think we are the enemy and no matter what we do the Russian state will create propaganda to support and increase this view..the only way to prevent war is for NATO to communicate to Putin and the Russian leadership it will tear Russia apart and damed the consequences if Russia triggers a war and Putin and the other leaders will loss everything.
I would say the answer is to shoot them down however I’m going to imagine if this is intentional then I’m going to say Russia probably flys them over built up areas knowing that if it is shot down it’s going to probably hit civilian houses
The thing is these are cheap disposable assets.. that are forcing a scrambled asset then a costly missile to destroy them.. essentially Russia expects them to be destroyed.. that defensive response is essentially not great it costs you more resources and does not communicate will.. in the Cold War the west maintained the peace and then won by constantly pushing back or even actually initiating the push..the Reagan doctrine was one of active political warfare in all domains.. that is what Putin and China are now doing to the west.. Europe needs to push back.. send its own attritional ISTAR drones for Russia to scramble after.
There are lots of soon to be retired ISTAR drones NATO could use to force a Russian response.. and Putin will soon get bored of the game if he has to keep burning airframe hours on his jets.