The UK should begin planning to reduce its reliance on the United States for key defence and security capabilities, a parliamentary committee has warned, arguing that long-standing assumptions about national security are starting to shift.
In its latest report on the National Security Strategy, the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy said the UK is now operating in an “era of radical uncertainty”, where great power competition, hybrid threats and changing alliances are steadily eroding the old rules. It broadly agrees with the Government’s assessment of the threat picture, but finds a clear gap between what is being promised and how it will actually be delivered.
The committee said it was “unclear on the adequacy of cross-Government accountability, and funding for commitments”, and pointed to the fact that “a detailed plan for the development of sovereign capabilities is also lacking”. It also highlighted what it described as “a distinct lack of clarity over which Government departments are responsible for which aspects of national security”, raising questions about whether the system as it stands can really deliver a coherent approach.
The UK, it says, still has “strategic dependencies on the United States for core capabilities in nuclear, intelligence and conventional defence”. While it accepts that the US relationship remains central, the committee is fairly blunt in saying more needs to be done to prepare for a scenario where that support is not guaranteed in the same way.
It recommends that the Government “must also develop a clear plan, along with other European allies, for a transition towards greater European leadership of NATO”, including preparing for a “worst-case scenario” where Europe has to act without US backing in a crisis. Alongside that, it says the UK should “plan to move away from a bilateral relationship with the United States that is so dependent” on Washington for major areas of defence capability, even if cooperation continues where it makes sense.
Beyond that, the report picks out a number of weaker areas, it suggests gaps in consultation may have meant too little attention was paid to the impact of cuts to soft power, and says plans to strengthen civil resilience are still fairly underdeveloped. There is, for example, limited detail on how critical national infrastructure will be better protected, what exactly the UK Resilience Academy will do, or how a “whole-of-society” approach to security is meant to work in practice.
China is also flagged more directly than before. The committee says the Government should recognise it as “a clear national security threat”, particularly given dependencies on supply chains and critical materials, and be more transparent about how security considerations are handled when doing business or signing agreements.
On industry, there is a fairly pointed criticism that no one seems to have properly defined what “sovereign capabilities” actually means. That lack of clarity, the report says, is already making it harder for companies to plan and invest. It calls for clearer direction, particularly on funding and support for smaller firms working in defence and security.
Among the recommendations are calls for more transparency, stronger accountability inside government, and greater clarity around plans to reach 1.5% of GDP spending on security and resilience by 2035.
We really need a big expansion of the ISTARI satellite constellation particularly for ELINT and SAR. We are already about to deploy satellite to do both we just need to add more to the fleet. Five of each would be sufficient. We also need to add an Infrared Tracking capability. This can be done with just two satellites in HEO orbit. Beyond that we need a space based SIGINT satellite. We should really consider a joint program with Canada and Australia for that. Two Geo stationary satellites would allow us to cover all of Russia and China and we can share the content as part of five eyes.
Fortunately the one thing the BoJo government did right was buy a share in one web so we have our own LEO mega constellation able to provide comms precision tracking.
It is also listed that Oberon our new SAR satellite has a radio frequency capture capability but it’s unclear if this for ELINT or SIGINT capability.
None of this is expensive, most of this is being put in place now we just need a bit more of it. We can sell the product it produces to allied governments as well.
Doris also ordered T31 and was about to announce T26B2 when he was deposed – he did also give the first big lump of cash to defence for a decade.
Other than that is was a continuum of disasters!
I can think of at least a dozen key capabilities we are 100% dependent on the US for.
This report is fantasy planning at the highest level.
So they say the US relations remain central, but also recommend moving away…
We can’t have BOTH
Let’s move away from them and fill in the gaps required with our own stuff
This, in turn, creates investment in new defence jobs, infrastructure, and future technology
We just can’t trust the US anymore!
The stuff they are spewing out at the moment is shocking🤯
I agree, you either move away or you don’t. The US has signaled it is no longer willing to honor article 5, end of story. We don’t rely on Hungary for any military capabilities even though they are in NATO as well. The USA should be no different.
You can’t be a little bit pregnant, this is no different.
The moment there is uncertainty over whether the US would honour Article 5 the deterrent is gone and NATO just becomes an excuse for Europe’s underfunding of defence.
You literally couldn’t make it up.
The national security strategy, made by the joint committee for national security strategy is advising, on the point for strategy on national security, to move away from the United States of America!
Perhaps a more honest rebranding & change the name of the joint committee for national security strategy to joint committee of ensuring the continued destruction of the United Kingdom & all she stands for.
So. Ding totally reliant on the US cavalry is in your view the sensible strategy? It’s like planning for how you intend to spend married life with your finance when not only is she seeing others on the side but is just working out when best to let you know she has dumped you. Fact is relying on the US is no longer an option without becoming Puerto Rica, an expendable Costa Rica at that. Seems sensible to me to recognise that reality now while trying to delay the more extreme effects of a total divorce while we are urgently building up options for where we live and how we finance it.
My biggest issue is a report of this nature is rather vital to any over reaching Defence Review findings being set in stone, which is why the latter isn’t nimble and flexible enough to achieve what is needed now, rather than some proscribed future that is rapidly changing and becoming out of date before anything is acquired, let alone too late even for that proscribed future. Worst of both Worlds when risk is here now and growing rapidly.
We had the choice of becoming cannon fodder for the US in Iran and making us a bigger target, or losing even the myth of US Calvert automatically coming to help Europe defend itself. Indeed some might question that Trumps motivation in the former has at least something to do with manipulating US opinion for not even maintaining the myth of standing with us against Russia. The sanctioned Duma reps presence as honoured guests in the Capitol and reduced sanctions against Russia while US servicemen are dying and assets destroyed due to Russian intelligence does nothing to suggest European lives will be of any consequence to MAGA principles and profit taking.
No.
Rock solid. Shoulder to shoulder.
Never wavering nor questioning.
That is security to a magnitude of all other lessers.
Sudden divorce, though the senior partner has been publicly shaming the marriage for some time and flirting with despots. Our poor Britainia
We have arguably the most anglophile President ever in the White House and yet a very poor relationship with the U.S.
Maybe we should look a bit more closely at how we have handled that relationship recently?
You mean we should jump when he says jump, be his servant whenever called. No thanks.
How could anything that I have said lead to that conclusion?
NewMe is right, That’s exactly what you said.
We have arguably the most anglophile President ever in the White House and yet a very poor relationship with the U.S.
Maybe we should look a bit more closely at how we have handled that relationship recently?
We had an outstanding diplomat as acting Ambassador in Washington. We replaced her with Mandleson.
If you know Trump everything.
Not so. We simply picked the wrong Ambassador.
Srsly????
?
We also have a total narcissist in The White House….who believes that the last thing a chat show host told him that day is a brilliant Tangerine Tinted policy and it becomes his idea.
This is reminiscent of two Yes, Minister sketches
‘I can’t remember the last time we had a minister with two ideas at the same time?’
When Sir Humphrey is confronted with having to change policy as parties change or in this case when days change and Trump forgets yesterday’s ramblings of a genius.
In this regard I have some sympathy for the otherwise useless Starmer in that the TACO policy flip-flops are so acute that he would in Sir Humphrey’s sage words be a
‘Stark staring raving schizophrenic.’
That may very well be the case. I have never met the President.
Nevertheless he has stated many times how fond of this country and its monarch he is.
That being the case, it takes quite extraordinary diplomatic maladroitness to turn that fondness into diffidence and distrust.
But that, unfortunately, putting all personal feelings aside in the national interest, as we undoubtedly should, is exactly what our government has managed to do.
“Il n’y a pas de principes, il n’y a que des événements ; il n’y a pas de lois, il n’y a que des circonstances : l’homme supérieur épouse les événements et les circonstances pour les conduire.”
How to you manage a relationship with a weather vane?
A relationship needs certain fixed ordinals.
Diplomacy. We had an outstanding and very experienced diplomat as acting Ambassador in Washington. We replaced her with Mandleson.
Oh please, get real money and influence is the only driving force for Trump. How more could we have bent over for Trump this past year or so. Meanwhile Carney is doing wonders and gaining more respect internally and externally by actually standing up to him. Weakness gets you no where with Trump, his father was effectively German but that hardly gains Germany any brownie points does it. He wants us to be a compliant disneyland golf resort worshipping him, not an independent thinking nation. Do you really think jumping in on this disastrous war would have benefited us, or indeed influenced Trump’s thinking on supporting us even 12 months down the line? He would have likely stated we were mere cowards again. We need to defend against Russia and being his pet will do nothing to ensure his support in that, even having lost much of our already cleaned out military resources doing his bidding now. Congress will be vital factor for NATO and uk defence generally and selling ourselves to Trump now is hardly going to endear us to them 10 months from now when Republicans will suffer big time in the mid terms and Trump becomes a lame duck or trues a coup.
You forgot one other driving force. He likes women. He listens to Susie Wiles.
Trump’s aides told Starmer’s National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell and his then-Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney that they wanted Dame Karen Pierce to remain in post.
Instead, HMG appointed Mandleson…
What could possibly have gone wrong?
Oops!
F-35 – US dependent
CH-47 – US dependent
Trident – US dependent
SIGINT – US dependent
Heavy lift – US dependent
Submarines – US dependent
Artillery rocket systems – US dependent
Many more systems and programs
We are the most US dependent and integrated armed forces in Europe, and these boneheads want that to stop – but not pay for it.
Where does it say the committee doesn’t want to pay for it?
I’ll believe they want to pay for it when thry actually do, instead of the repeated “more jam tomorrow” spiel we’ve gotten for at least 2 decades now.
‘Show me the money’
No they want us to plan to stop or at least reduce it as much as possible. Big difference and makes great and perfect sense. Indeed the opposite could be deemed the deluded strategy.
Starti… sorry… STARTING to shift?
Perhaps the understatement of the century. Constant anti-UK rhetoric, pro-Putin agenda (and actions), blatant corruption, unapologetic manipulation of European elections which will no doubt include our own in due course.
Oh – and an inability to oust a known sexual predator, who in all likelyhood has committed far graver crimes with children on a certian well known island – from the top seat in their country.
I genuinely believe that in the event of a war involving the UK – the USA is more likely to back our aversary than us. That’s the new default position, without any other context.
If Argentina tried again tomorrow – how do you think it’d play out?
Yes indeed, you could say that long-standing assumptions are beginning to shift. Arguably, they finised shifting some time ago.
Argentina does not have any realistic hope of militarily regaining the Falklands and will not for many years yet.
Argentina’s real problem is the large international – mainly Chinese – fishing fleets on the edge of Argentina”s Exclusive Economic Zone, which siphon off stocks of whitefish and squid where krill rise on currents swelling from the ocean depths
Incidentally, the increase in size of the Chinese High seas fishing fleet also coincides with the marked decline of migratory fish returning to British rivers to spawn.
Basically come away from over reliance on the United States but hope they keep sharing intelligence and future projects because we have no money to establish our own.
We have been over reliant on our status as an unsinkable aircraft carrier on this side of the Atlantic, which has thus offset our reducing military capability. Since our closest threat is from the Russia and its allies it has always made more sense to focus on that rather than our pinprick capability as a blue water ‘power’. Since Europeans are our closest neighbours and of course in NATO it is a no-brainer to look towards closer co-operation with them. The North Atlantic is as much in our interests as is the US so less cosying up to the whims of their presidents and foreign policies is essential.
Cosying up to the whims of European presidents and foreign policies is no better. Some of them are just as hostile to the UK as Trump.
Well the USA is not the enemy, regardless of daft comments from the current president. However the USA is in decline as a world power. This was recognised by the foreign affairs select committee 15 years ago when they asked William Hague about it. He felt at the time that we didn’t need to worry until 2050. China is outbuilding them in everything, pretty much. So really we should have started then. However 2008 financial mess made the whole thing moot. As for today, Tempest is a good start, shipbuilding is in a better place. Capability takes time to build, let’s hope the government are listening and build actual sovereign capability and don’t swap dependence on the USA for one based on Europe or elsewhere.
For defence of the UK mainland we don’t need to be dependent on anyone and indeed we face almost zero threat in that regards. We can’t project power on a global basis without support of allies either American, European or Commonwealth.
However as both the USA and China have just discovered no one can project global power without the support of allies.
China’s fuel supply is currently being throttled by is ally who is now charging it tolls to pass through international waters and its massive world beating navy is no where to be found primarily because it has no regional allies in which to base assets.
America just got bitch slapped by its pooddle when it realized it doesn’t own Diego Garcia and then realized that the only two aircraft carriers it can deploy equipped with F18 which is pretty dated are able to do very little when talking a medium sized country like Iran.
For a country with zero threat to its mainland:
2006 Citizen assassinated in London by polonium-210
2018 UK citizen killed, policeman and two other citizens seriously injured by CBRN attacks in quantities able to kill thousands.
2024-Feb 2026 80,000 small boat illegal immigrants
2026 2xICBM fired at British Overseas Territory at a range of from Iran demonstrating ability of Iran’s ICBMs to reach UK
‘A strike profile extending into the Indian Ocean demonstrates not merely extended range, but Iran’s deliberate abandonment of strategic ambiguity…Iran is no longer signaling restraint. It is signalling reach, and doing so under live warfighting conditions.’
Not one of those constituents a conventional threat to the UK mainland. Suggest you check the dictionary for description of mainland in island chains.
First, why don’t you consult a dictionary as to the meaning of ‘constituent’…then come back with a suitably amended comment so that we all may understand it.
Chinese wunderwaffe haven’t proven very wunderful for the Iranians, have they?
So regain sovereignty by moving away from the US and getting getting closer to the EU. Oh what a surprise.
Was always the better option. Being the 51st State if that were even as high a relationship as they would allow us is hardly a signal of independence is it. We are similar to European States, we are a more distant Puerto Rica to the US. Prefer the former for all its annoyances myself. We imagine the US is like us when in reality it is anything but. Geez more Americans have German decent than British these days.
Fascinating interview on BBC with German General Breuer. This quote really peaked my interest in how they are seeking to achieve operational independence: It seems both clearer and more in action than SDR… they also have a path to add an additional 80,000 regular servicemen and 200,000 reserves over the next few years… meanwhile we have set a target of 70,000 trained regular soldiers by 2028… and 100,000 combined regular and reserve by 2032.
“We, in Germany, have set a clear prioritised list,” says Breuer.
“What we need is ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance], what we need is drones. What we need is deep precision strike capability. Also space capabilities have to come into this. So these are our most urgent needs here. But like I said, we have put it on a prioritised list, and we are working on it, and we are well on our way.”
Difference between German and UK thinking even with the 70 years of mental stress on the German psyche in that time. We sadly need a disaster to get us off our butts as sadly we see even in these pages from some delusional voices who just can’t wean them off being patsies to a US headed irretrievably into island America and innate and ignorant distaste for Europeans, foreigners generally indeed. We aren’t special to them and as the war becomes just another historical footnote ever more so for the Joe in the street. We need to get used to it and see who our true allies are. Canada and Australia along with Japan and Europe are now our vital colleagues in this new World and ever more so as American decline threatens their very existence as a democratic entity. Americans can’t handle that now, what the hell will they be like when China and potentially even India start dominating World affairs and MAGA can no longer fool the masses that it isn’t so.
Good move…but, it does not happen overnight. The withdrawal from Kabul shook me. A total waste of UK and European lives, like Iraq was the responsibility of the liar Blair along with his sellout to the PIRA. The stench left by politicians will never leave my nostrils, a Lawyers Cabal made up of scum.
Realities? Better off without US equipment with its conditions, limitations and veto’s on use. There are plenty of good alternatives that will suffice.
We are an Atlantic/Northern European power, not a world mover and shaker anymore. Why feed taxpayer money into a US MIC?
If hybrid war is the future? Prep for it for pity’s sake. My take is a new European Alliance, Nordics, Balts, Germany and Poland and of course Dutch. Maybe even the freeloading Irish will get off their arses.
Learn from the Fins and Swedes, civil defence revamp, military service as an attractive career for young people. Move away from welfarism and its cancerous effects on citizenry. Mostly? Stop the control freakery of government, a government who in reality are scared shitless of one thing. Ordinary people just saying “enough”.
Following the advice of the current Vice President, JD Vance in his interview in April last year, over the topic of Europeans and the Iraq War:
Quote
“I think a lot of European nations were right about our invasion of Iraq. And frankly, if the Europeans had been a little more independent, and a little more willing to stand up, then maybe we could have saved the entire world from the strategic disaster that was the American-led invasion of Iraq.”
Strange that everyone on this site knows how far our military capabilities have fallen, we’re essentially incapable of fighting any sort of peer war for longer than afew weeks. The Trump administration calls us (and our European neighbours) out on it, and people are up in arms. Now thats not to say we should be fighting Iran, we’re right to stay out of that. But the US adminstration is 100% correct on its assesment of our capabilities. European NATO inc us freeloaded for 30 years. Its way beyond time we actually bloody did something and invested in our own defence. We’re rapidly turning into a joke.
Freeloading, except for that one time some little event happened on 9/11 and the entire alliance went to shed blood in the sand for the best part of twenty years. Such a trivial matter, hardly worth mentioning it really. Silly me for bringing it up!