British aid helping Ukraine ‘oppose Russian invasion’

“The Ukrainian capacity to defend and to oppose a Russian land invasion is now much larger than it used to be, with the delivery of the UK aid last week.”

Ukraine ability to deter Russia ‘greater’ after British help

The remark was made during a Defence Committee meeting, specifically a session taking oral evidence regarding the Russia-Ukraine Crisis.

Olga Tokariuk, Non-resident Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said during the session:

“The Ukrainian capacity to defend and to oppose a Russian land invasion is now much larger than it used to be, with all the Javelin anti-tank missiles and the delivery of the UK aid last week, with other anti-tank weapons. It is not a given that Russia will focus on a land invasion. If it does not, and if it focuses more on air missile strikes, that could be a real danger and it does not depend on weather conditions. That is one point I wanted to make.

Another point, if I may, is about the probability of the Ukrainians being provoked into something. That is what Russia would really like to see, and they are trying all they can in this area. It has also been pushed by Russian misinformation for a long time and by Russian officials. The Ukrainian authorities and military show incredible restraint, so it is very unlikely that something like that is going to happen and that they could be provoked.

The last question was about what kind of military deterrent could be in the NATO response. The article I submitted today was about the latest military assistance delivered to the Ukraine from the UK, the US, the Baltic states and the Czech Republic. All this is a very strong deterrent to a possible Russian attack. On the one hand, it boosts Ukraine’s military and society morale. It gives Ukrainians the feeling that they are not alone, that they have not been abandoned by their Western country partners and that there is concrete assistance coming in—not just words, but deeds. As you probably know, “God Save the Queen” was trending on Ukrainian social media last week after the UK sent the military assistance.

In Russian eyes, we are seeing historical messages from the Crimea in reaction to this military assistance. This indicates that Russia really does not want it to happen. It does not want the Western weapons coming to Ukraine, and that could serve as a really strong deterrent. As I said before, the problem is that most of those weapons are focused on Russian land hardware, but Ukraine’s crucial weaknesses and vulnerabilities are air and missile defence. That is what military experts tell me, so that is coming from credible sources.”

Exclusive imagery from someone we have on the ground shows vehicles marked as carrying explosives going into RAF Brize Norton this morning. This has been going on since it was revealed that British C-17 aircraft flying from the base are delivering weapons to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/gRNASyFWfe

— George Allison (@geoallison) January 18, 2022

The UK is the “leading European power” assisting Ukraine to defend itself against Russia according to an analyst giving evidence to a British parliamentary committee.

UK is ‘leading European power’ supporting Ukraine

The following exchange happened earlier today as the Scottish Affairs Committee held its first evidence session as part of its inquiry, Defence in Scotland: Military Personnel and Estate.

Chairperson Pete Wishart, Member of Parliament Perth and North Perthshire, asked:

“Is the UK in any meaningful role, has any meaningful role in all of this given it’s mainly going to be the Americans and NATO? I know we’re members of NATO.”

Professor Phillips O’Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies, University of St Andrews, responded:

“Is it going to match what the US can do? No, nowhere close to that. But for a European power, clearly, the Germans don’t know what they’re doing and the French also seem torn. The UK is the leading European power that is willing to provide some support to the Ukrainians. I think that is being recognised”.

What is the UK doing?

Most notably in recent weeks, the Uk has been flying thousands of anti-tank missile systems to Ukraine after gifting the nation larger stockpiles of the NLAW weapon system.

Third day of British weapon flights to Ukraine

Before that, British military assistance to Ukraine was increased significantly after 2014 and the Russian annexation of Crimea, a Parliamentary Research Briefing paper has taken a look at just what that involves.

In 2015 the UK launched Operation Orbital, a non-lethal training and capacity building operation that provides guidance and training to the Ukrainian armed forces.

“In August 2020 the MOD announced that the UK will lead a new multinational maritime training initiative that will boost the capacity of Ukraine’s Navy to act in the Black Sea. The UK and Ukraine have also launched the Naval Capabilities Enhancement Programme, which will develop Ukraine’s naval capabilities. To date, over 21,000 Ukrainian military personnel have been trained under these initiatives. The UK has also gifted £2.2 million of non-lethal military equipment.”

In June 2021 the UK, Ukraine and industry signed a Memorandum of Implementation that will push the NCEP forward. Work will now commence on:

• Ukraine’s purchase of two refurbished Royal Navy Sandown-class minehunters in a government-to-government sale
• The sale and integration of missiles on new and in-service Ukrainian Navy patrol and airborne platforms, including a training and engineering support package
• Assistance in building new naval bases in the Black Sea and Azov Sea
• The development and joint production of eight fast missile warships
• Participation in the Ukrainian project to deliver a modern frigate capability.

Additionally, British surveillance aircraft have been keeping an eye on Russian forces. Last week, a British RC-135 ‘Rivet Joint’ intelligence-gathering aircraft once again deployed to Crimea to keep an eye on Russian forces near the border with Ukraine.

Earlier, we reported that there has been an increase in the frequency of British RC-135 aircraft being deployed to the Black Sea region near Ukraine’s border with Russia. The UK has deployed an aircraft for this task every few days over the last month or so. British surveillance aircraft being over the Black Sea near Crimea isn’t unusual but we are seeing a significant increase in the frequency of the flights over the last few weeks. American assets are also present.

The British Foreign Secretary has stated that Britain is “ensuring that Ukraine has the capability to defend itself”.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in Parliament:

“In December, I visited British troops forming part of NATO’s enhanced forward presence at Tapa in Estonia, where allies are helping to protect the border with Russia. We are working with our NATO partners to ensure that that protection remains in place and is enhanced so that we can fulfil our commitments. With Ukraine, we are ensuring that it has the capability to defend itself. That involves training, and the UK has trained more than 20,000 troops in Ukraine. We are also supplying extra capability for naval defences as well as support in areas such as cyber-security and other services.”

On top of the above, British military forces are set to be deployed to strengthen Eastern Europe’s borders in the face of rising Russian aggression.

British military in ‘major deployment’ to defend Europe

You can read more on that here.